首页|Will the 2022 compound heatwave-drought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

Will the 2022 compound heatwave-drought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic conditions.However,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal heterogeneity.By integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 2100s were projected.The findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4 ℃ higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial variation.In July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of～200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,respectively.By 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by one-third.Looking towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the midstream.These findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

Compound extreme eventJoint return periodDroughtHeatwaveClimate changeYangtze River Basin

Ai-Qing FENG、Qing-Chen CHAO、Lu-Lu LIU、Ge GAO、Guo-Fu WANG、Xue-Jun ZHANG、Qi-Guang WANG

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China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,National Climate Centre,Beijing 100081,China

Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China

China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China

China Meteorological Administration Training Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China

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National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaSpecial Project for Compilation of the Fourth National Assessment Report on Climate Change of the Ministry of Science and TeYouth Open Project of China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction StudiesInnovation and Development Project of China Meteorological AdministrationChina Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd

423710844210131141975100210YBXM2018108002CMA-LCPS-23-04CXFZ2024J037Z242302014

2024

10.1016/j.accre.2024.05.004

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2024.15(3)