首页|Could the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism promote climate mitigation?An economy-wide analysis

Could the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism promote climate mitigation?An economy-wide analysis

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Due to concerns about carbon leakage and sectoral competitiveness,the European Union(EU)proposed implementing the carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM).The effectiveness and potential negative consequences of CBAM have aroused extensive discussion.From the perspective of the economy-wide analysis,this study uses a global computable general equilibrium model to explore the rationality of CBAM from the aspects of socioeconomic impact and the effects of promoting climate mitigation.Furthermore,the potential alternative mechanism of CBAM is proposed.The results show that CBAM can reduce the EU's gross domestic product(GDP)loss;however,the GDP loss in all other regions increases.Moreover,CBAM raises household welfare losses in most regions,including the EU.Second,although CBAM can reduce the marginal abatement cost in eight regions,it comes at the cost of greater economic losses.Furthermore,the economic and household welfare cost of raising emissions reduction targets in regions like the USA and Japan is substantially higher than the impact of passively accepting the CBAM;therefore,CBAM's ability to drive ambitious emission reduction initiatives may be limited.Finally,for the potential alternative mechanism,from the perspective of reducing economic cost and household welfare losses,the EU could implement domestic tax cuts in the short-term and promote global unified carbon pricing in the long-term.

Border adjustment mechanismComputable general equilibrium modelCarbon priceClimate policyGlobal carbon pricing

Kun ZHANG、Yun-Fei YAO、Xiang-Yan QIAN、Yu-Fei ZHANG、Qiao-Mei LIANG、Yi-Ming WEI

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College of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China

Sinopec Research Institute of Petroleum Engineering,Sinopec,Beijing 100101,China

College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China

School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China

Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management,Beijing 100081,China

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National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaR&D Program of Beijing Municipal Education CommissionChina Postdoctoral Science FoundationChina Postdoctoral Science Foundation

72293605722936007220401372074022SM2023100050052021M7003142023T160035

2024

10.1016/j.accre.2024.05.002

气候变化研究进展(英文版)
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展(英文版)

影响因子：0.806
ISSN：1674-9278
年,卷(期)：2024.15(3)