Delay of flooding water discharge by sea level rise:a case study on Ziyaxinhe River
This paper is the result of flooding water discharge by sea level rise.[Objective]Although being well known that sea level rise under the global climate change is a major driving force of coastal environmental changes,it has long been an obvious gap between the fundamental researches concerned and the existing coastal socio-economical activities,especially the quantitative impact-estimation for a given coastal area.This paper is an approach to remedy such a rift.[Methods]Catastrophic rainfall in the July-August last year,triggered off an one-in-60-years flood in Beijing-Hebei-Tianjin region.With a process of the flooding-water-discharge in a sluice,we approach a cause-and-effect relationship between elevating tidal level and delays of flood water discharge.[Results]Under the forecast sea level rise in the 21st century,a spacious-temporal relationship between tidal level rise,following the sea level rise,and curtailed discharge time of flooding water as 1 cm versus 0.02 hour.[Conclusions]Thus,a concept of'tipping point'of the tidal level being higher than the contemporaneous flood water is addressed and delaying discharge time scenarios for the three time nodes 2030,2040 and 2050 are estimated,respectively.
Land catastrophic floodwater dischargesea level risetipping pointscenarios
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