Epidemiological trends and projections of lung cancer deaths levels and disease burden in Chinese residents,1990-2019
Objective To explore the disease burden and risk factors of lung cancer among Chinese residents,1990-2019,and to analyze the trend prediction of the epidemiological trend,so as to provide a basis for further prevention and control.Methods The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study,which described the level of mortality based on the number of deaths,mortality rates,and age-standardized mortality rates(ASMR)of lung cancer in China and globally.Disability-adjusted life-years(DALY)were used to comprehensively assess the burden of disease.The burden of a total of 16 occupational and non-occupational risk factors was attributed.The optimal model was identified using the Joinpoint method,which was to use a log linear regression model to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and av-erage annual percentage change(AAPC),and trend analysis was performed.APC and AAPC were calculated by log-linear regression model,and trend analysis was performed.Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict the deaths of lung cancer of different genders of residents in China from 2020 to 2035.Results From 1990 to 2019,the num-ber of lung cancer deaths in China was 256 300 and 757 200 cases,an increase of 195.39％,AAPC=3.84％(95％CI:3.60-4.08),nearly twice the global growth rate(AAPC=2.27％).The mortality rate increased from 21.65/100 000 to 53.23/100 000,an increase of 145.83％,AAPC=3.08％(95％CI:2.80-3.36),nearly three times the global rate(AAPC=0.98％).ASMR showed an upward trend,AAPC=0.78％(95％CI:0.56-1.01),but the global trend was downward.China's standardized disability loss of life-years for lung cancer,the rate of life-years lost in early death,and the rate of DA-LY rate increased by 44.49％,8.96％,and 9.28％,respectively in 2019,with an AAPCs of 1.31％(95％CI:1.09-1.53),0.32％(95％CI:0.09-0.55),and 0.33％(95％CI:0.10-0.56),respectively.The burden of lung cancer in Chi-na was higher in male,and the increase was more significant.The top three risk factors for lung cancer in China in 2019 were smoking,environmental PM2.5 and second-hand smoke,and high fasting blood glucose level rose to the 4th place,with the largest increase in its standardized DALY rate.The prediction results showed that the standardized mortality rate of lung cancer in Chinese males fluctuated flatly from 2020 to 2035,while females demonstrated an increasing trend.Con-clusions The level of lung cancer deaths and the burden of disease in China's population are more severe than people in the world.There was an increase in the burden parity caused by high fasting blood glucose levels.Lung cancer deaths in fe-males are predicted to rise in the period of 2020-2035.Comprehensively grasping the trend of the burden of lung cancer in China and its influencing factors,as well as effectively predicting the developmental trend,will provide theoretical support for the prevention and control of lung cancer in China.
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NSTL
万方数据
