Analysis for incidence and mortality trend and age-period-cohort of liver cancer in Shandong Province from 2012 to 2022
Objective To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Shandong from 2012 to 2022 and es-timate the related age,period and cohort effect,respectively.Methods We used joinpoint regression to analyze the trend of incidence and mortality,and calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)based on the data of liver cancer cases from 2012 to 2022.The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the age-effect,time-effect and cohort-effect of liver cancer risk in the population aged over 20 years.Results From 2012 to 2022,the standardized incidence of liver cancer in Shandong Province showed a significant decreasing trend,with an annual decrease of 6.0％(AAPC=-6.0％,95％CI:-6.9％--5.1％,P＜0.05).The decrease was 5.9％in men(AAPC=-5.9％,95％CI:-6.9％--4.9％,P＜0.05)and 6.0％in women(AAPC=-6.0％,95％CI:-6.7％-5.2％,P＜0.05).The decrease was 6.6％in urban areas(AAPC=-6.6％,95％CI:-8.0％--5.3％,P＜0.05)and 4.9％in rural areas(AAPC=-4.9％,95％CI:-5.9％--3.9％,P＜0.05).From 2012 to 2022,the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in Shandong province showed a significant downward trend,with an annual decrease of 5.1％(AAPC=-5.1％,95％CI:-5.9％--4.4％,P＜0.05),and a decrease of 4.9％(AAPC=-4.9％,95％CI:-5.6％--4.2％,P＜0.05)in men,5.5％in women(AAPC=-5.5％,95％CI:-6.6％-4.4％,P＜0.05).The decrease was 4.6％in urban areas(AAPC=-4.6％,95％CI:-6.0％-3.1％,P＜0.05)and 4.8％in rural areas(AAPC=-4.8％,95％CI:-6.1％-3.6％,P＜0.05).The relative risk of incidence and mortality of liver cancer increased with age,and the period effect and cohort effect decreased with years.Conclusion The incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Shandong have showed a de-creasing trend in the past decade.Age is an important factor affecting the risk of incidence and mortality.The disease burden of liver cancer is still serious in the future.We should pay attention to the early diagnosis and treatment of high-risk groups,and in addition,strengthen the exploratory research of its etiology,to provide reference for liver cancer pre-vention and control strategies.
liver cancerincidencemortalityjoinpointage-period-cohort model
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