Age period cohort analysis and prediction of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019
Objective To analyzes the incidence and mortality changes of nasopharynx cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and provide data support for the formulation of related prevention and treatment strategies.Methods Data on the inci-dence and mortality of nasopharynx cancer in China were collected from the global burden of disease database(GBD 2019).Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend changes of incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019,age-period-cohort model and risk factor method were used to estimate the age,period and cohort effect of the risk of inci-dence and mortality of nasopharynx cancer,and Bayesian age period cohort model was used to analyze the standardized in-cidence and mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 2020 to 2035.Results Compared with 1990,the inci-dence and standardized incidence of nasopharynx cancer in China in 2019 increased by 186.35％and 70.69％,respective-ly,and the mortality rate and standardized mortality rate in 2019 decreased by 10.27％and 50.69％compared with 1990,respectively.Among which the relevant indicators of male incidence were higher than that of female.From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence of nasopharynx cancer showed an increasing trend,AAPC was 1.9％,of which AAPC was 2.5％in men and 0.7％in women.The standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend,with AAPC being-2.5％:-2.0％for men and-3.7％for women.The age-period-cohort model of incidence showed that the risk of incidence was highest in the age group 55-59 years old,with an RR value of 3.00,and the effect coefficient of incidence increased year by year from 1990 to 2019,but gradually decreased with the backward shift of birth year.The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the mortality effect coefficient increased in the 5-89 years and reached the highest in the 85-89 age group,and the RR value of mortality risk was 3.49,and the mortality effect decreased from 1990 to 2019 and gradually decreased with the passage of the birth cohort.From 2020 to 2035,the standardized incidence rate of nasophar-ynx cancer in China showed an upward trend,and the standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend.The propor-tion of nasopharynx cancer in China was attributed to behavioral risk,followed by alcohol and smoking.Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence rate of nasopharynx cancer in China shows an upward trend,while the standardized mortality rate shows a downward trend.It is predicted that the incidence rate will continue to increase in the next 15 years,to formulate targeted measures to reduce the burden of nasopharynx cancer in our country.
nasopharynx cancerincidencemortalityjoinpoint regressionage-period-cohort model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
