Trend and prediction of disease burden of cervical cancer and ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019
Objective To analyze the disease burden and trends of cervical cancer and ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2019,and to predict the incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer and ovarian cancer from 2020 to 2030.Methods The incidence,age-standardized incidence rate,mortality,age-standardized mortality rate,disability adjusted life year(DA-LY),years of life lost(YLL)and years lived with disability(YLD)of cervical cancer and ovarian cancer were extracted from the 2019 global burden of disease(GBD)database.The trend of the average annual percentage change(AAPC)for cervical cancer and ovarian cancer from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed by Joinpoint regression.The grey prediction model was used to predict the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer and ovarian cancer in China from 2020 to 2030.Results From 1990 to 2019,the number of incidence of cervical cancer in China increased from 40 700 to 109 800,a relative increase of 168.78％;the number of mortality increased from 26 400 to 53 400,a relative increase of 102.27％;the number of inci-dence of ovarian cancer increased from 12 700 to 45 500,a relative increase of 258.27％;the number of mortality increased from 8 000 to 29 100,a relative increase of 263.75％.The number of ovarian cancer cases increased from 12 700 to 45 500,a relative increase of 258.27％;the number of deaths increased from 8 000 to 29 100,a relative increase of 263.75％.In China,the age-standardized incidence rate of cervical cancer(AAPC=0.95％,P＜0.001),the age-standardized incidence rate of ovarian cancer(AAPC=2.03％,P＜0.001)and age-standardized mortality rate of ovarian cancer(AAPC=1.58％,P＜0.001)showed an increasing trend,while the standardized mortality of cervical cancer(AAPC=-0.45％,P＜0.001)showed a decreasing trend.In 2019,the DALY and YLL of cervical cancer and ovarian cancer in-creased with age,and reached the peak at 50-54 years old.YLL and YLD both increased to some degree,and the age-standardized YLD rate increased by 61.51％and 89.31％respectively in 2019.The results of grey prediction model show that by 2030,the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China will be 20.58/100 000 and 9.69/100 000 respectively,and the incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer will be 9.47/100 000 and 6.29/100 000,respectively.Conclusion The disease burden of cervical cancer and ovarian cancer in China remained heavy from 1990 to 2019,and it is expected that the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer and ovarian cancer in China will continue to rise from 2020 to 2030.Screening of high-risk groups(especially women over 50 years old)should be strengthened,early detection,early diagnosis and early treatment,health education for middle-aged and elderly women should be strengthened,and women's awareness of self-pre-vention and proactive screening should be enhanced.
cervical cancerovarian cancerincidencemortalitydisability adjusted life year(DALY)disease burden
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
