Study on the Refined Regionalization and the Impact of Climate Change on the Safe Transplanting Period of Flue-Cured Tobacco in Sanmenxia
Based on the observation data from 63 automatic meteorological stations in Sanmenxia,the two meteorological factors of the daily minimum temperature and the daily average temperature are selected to build the zoning indexes for the safe transplanting period of local flue-cured tobacco.A spatial analysis model of the regionalization indicators is established by multiple linear regression methods.And with the help of the geographic information system(GIS)technology,a refined regionalization with a grid distance of 1 km×1 km is generated for the safe transplanting period.In addition,the annual variation characteristics of the safe transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco are analyzed.The results show that:the safe transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco in different areas of Sanmenxia city spans from April 13 to May 10,and the altitude range of the safe transplanting period from April 13 to April 20,late April and early May is 200-700 m,500-1000 m and 700-1200 m respectively,with the area proportion of 12%,41%,41%and 38%respectively.After mid-May,it is no longer suitable for flue-cured tobacco transplanting.From 1981 to 2021,the average minimum temperature and average temperature in Sanmenxia significantly increased at a rate of 0.58℃/(10 a)and 0.54℃/(10 a),respectively,which evidences strong negative correlation with the safe transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco over the years,and the correlation coefficients were-0.408 and-0.435,respectively.The increase in temperature has made the safe transplanting period of flue-cured tobacco significantly advance at the rate of 2.41 d/(10 a).
万方数据
维普
