Maximum Wind Speed Estimation in Eastern Tibet Based on Three Different Distribution Functions
Based on the long-term observation data from 9 stations in Eastern Tibet(the earliest since 1953)and the short-term observation data after 2014 from 61 stations,three different probability density distribution functions are used to estimate the maximum wind speed in Eastern Tibet and analyze its spatiotemporal distribution.The results show that in the long term,Eastern Tibet is jointly influenced by the westerly zone and monsoon,with the northwest wind(with a frequency of 27％)as the main wind direction.99％of the sample wind speeds are no more than 9.0 m/s,and wind speeds exceeding 15.0 m/s only account for 0.016％.Type Ⅰ,Ⅱ and Ⅲ distribution functions are used to fit the measured maximum wind speeds,and it is found that the parameters fitted for different time periods are not significantly different.Using the least squares method for verification and correction can greatly reduce the mean absolute deviation and root mean square error of the estimated maximum wind speed,and the prolonged time series of the observation data brings better overall estimation effect.The estimated distribution of the maximum wind speed in Eastern Tibet that is based on type Ⅱ function can better reflect the actual spatial distribution of the maximum wind speed in the region,with a range of 13.2 to 30.9 m/s.
Eastern Tibetmaximum wind speedprobability density functioncumulative density functionFrechet distribution
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