Application Research of Convective Scale Ensemble Prediction in Complex Terrain
Complex terrain is one of the important sources of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction,especially the steep and discontinuous mountain and canyon terrain.The differences in their shapes and surface properties have extremely complex effects on atmospheric motion,and the convection scale ensemble forecast is an effective means to solve the uncertainty of model forecast caused by terrain.Therefore,it is very important to thoroughly and comprehensively sort out the application research of convective scale ensemble forecast in complex terrain background.This article focuses on the disturbance design of the model terrain,considers the influence of terrain effects on the numerical models,pays attention to the uncertainty of the model terrain conversion process,and comprehensively reviews the methods of dealing with complex terrain in high-resolution numerical simulation.It covers constructing different vertical coordinate systems,using smooth interpolation methods,building a model linking terrain factors and precipitation,considering the same initial field and lateral boundary conditions and interpolating to different terrain heights and overcoming background error defects of terrain factors such as terrain gradient,height,and degree fluctuations,thereby improving the forecast quality.
万方数据
维普
