CMIP5 model-based prediction and sensitivity analysis of climate change in China
Based on temperature and precipitation data of 26 global climate system models provided by CMIP5,this study analyzed sensitivity of response of climate change in different regions of China in 21 century using Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI).Results showed that the most sensitive regions of climate change were all distributed in Tibet,and followed by northwest and northeast regions,and the least sensitive regions were distributed in east-central area of Inner Mongolia,north China and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze throughout 21th century under three scenarios(RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 8.5).High emission scenario were greatly related to high sensitivity of climate change.According to analysis of RCCI contribution factors,the distribution of areas with significant change of temperature in winter and summer are mainly consistent with that of RCCI,which indicated that the distribution of RCCI greatly depended on the sensitivity of temperature change.The areas with significant change of precipitation are mainly distributed in Tibet,south and northeast China for summer but it distributed in the central plain area from the south of the Yellow River to the north of the Yangtze river for winter.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
