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鄱阳湖老爷庙沉船事件的气象条件分析

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本文利用1959-2015年鄱阳湖老爷庙水域及其周边6个气象站的逐日观测资料、鄱阳湖星子自动气象站逐小时观测资料、历史天气图及台风路径资料,对1973-2014年8次老爷庙水域沉船事件的气象条件进行分析,得到以下结论:(1)老爷庙水域的风速和风向与地形及特定天气系统密切相关,风场变化复杂,大风较多;(2)8次沉船事件都与大风有关,分别发生在冬半年冷空气(冷高压)与锋面等主要天气系统过境和夏半年易受热带气旋影响的时段,且冷空气的强弱与事故无明显关联;(3)老爷庙水域的大风易形成较大的浪高,8次事件的最大可能浪高均超过1 m,突发风浪是导致航船失事的重要原因;(4)老爷庙水域大风及风向的变化频繁,由此引起的波浪突然改变增大了老爷庙水域船舶航行的风险。
Analysis of meteorological conditions for shipwrecks in Laoyemiao waters of Poyang Lake
Based on daily meteorological data of six observation stations surrounding Laoyemiao waters from 1959 to 2015,hourly observation data at Poyang Lake Xingzi automatic meteorological station,the historical surface weather map of the Asia Pacific region,and the western North Pacific tropical cyclone database,the possible causes of 8 shipwrecks in Laoyemiao water area since 1970 from the perspective of meteorology were analyzed.Results show that changes of wind speed,direction and seasonal gales in Laoyemiao waters are closely related to the local topography and special synoptic systems.The eight shipwrecks were all associated with strong winds,occurring in the winter half year when cold air(cold high pressure)and fronts are the main transit weather systems,and in the summer half year when they are susceptible to tropical cyclones.The wave height in Laoyemiao waters is highly related to the strong winds,and all maximum wave heights causing 8 shipwrecks are higher than 1 m.Strong winds and their frequent changes in direction lead to sudden increase of wind and changes of wave height and/or wave propagation direction in Laoyemiao waters,causing the vessel to be suddenly subjected to crosswind and wave action.

Poyang Lakeshipwrecksmeteorological disasterlake wave

程永峰、陈星

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南京大学大气科学学院,南京 210023

中国气象局—南京大学气候预测研究联合实验室,南京 210023

鄱阳湖 沉船事件 气象灾害 湖泊风浪

国家自然科学基金资助项目

41475062

2024

气象科学
江苏省气象学会

气象科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.925
ISSN:1009-0827
年,卷(期):2024.44(4)