Research on the predictability of precipitation based on minute level perceptible water vapor
The local specific humidity profile was constructed by using ground-based remote sensing equipment,which contains wind profile radar and microwave radiometer data and AWS(Automatic Weather Station)to make up for the insufficient space-time density of conventional radiosonde information and the low accuracy of new observation data.Atmospheric Perceptible Water(PW)was calculated by using the specific humidity profile,aiming to explore the time lead and magnitude correlation between the variation trend of PW and actual precipitation under different precipitation types.Results show that:(1)more than 80％of precipitation processes have PW surge before precipitation.(2)PW and ΔPW have the predictability of time node for the beginning and peak of precipitation,and the precipitation is most likely to occur within two hours after PW reaches the peak.(3)The peak value of ΔPW is positively correlated with the peak value of rainfall intensity,and the correlation coefficient is 0.77.The preliminary study shows that the high resolution information of PW can be used as the sequence data of short-term forecast analysis,and can be used as the reference for quantitative judgment of precipitation forecast.
万方数据
维普
