首页|基于敏感承灾体的雷电灾害风险区划因子优化研究

基于敏感承灾体的雷电灾害风险区划因子优化研究

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雷电灾害风险评估和区划是当前全国第一次自然灾害风险普查工作的重要内容。针对试点区县普查中发现的《雷电灾害调查与风险评估技术规范》中指标选取、指标空间精细度等方面存在的值得商榷和改进之处,本文提出以下优化方案:(1)致灾危险性因子选取优化:致灾危险性因子仅使用闪电定位观测数据。(2)承灾体暴露度因子空间尺度精细化:采用1 km×1 km高精度人口和经济数据直接进行栅格计算,而不是采用行政区域均值。(3)承灾体脆弱性因子选取优化:引入了承灾体类型因子,反映出不同承灾体类型的雷电灾害脆弱性和易损性的显著不同;将场所的防雷装置设计审核和按期检测情况作为防雷减灾能力考量指标。同时,本文以常州市金坛区为例,使用该技术方案进行了雷电灾害风险区划并与规范进行对比。结果表明此方案更加科学、合理,反映了评估区域承灾体的雷电灾害风险特征,也更加符合本次普查和评估区划工作精准施策、针对性开展防雷减灾工作的初衷。
Optimization of lightning disaster risk assessment parameters based on vulnerable objects
The risk assessment and zoning of lightning disasters are important contents of the first national natural disaster risk survey.In response to the questionable aspects of the"Technical Specification for Lightning Disaster Investigation and Risk Assessment"in terms of indicator selection and spatial precision in the pilot regions program,this article proposes the following optimization plan:(1)optimization of disaster risk factor selection:only lightning location observation data is used for disaster risk factors.(2)Refinement of spatial scale for exposure factors of disaster prone bodies:1 km × 1 km high-precision population and economic data are directly calculated in a grid format,rather than using administrative regional averages.(3)Optimization of vulnerability factor selection for disaster prone bodies:the introduction of disaster prone body type factor reflects significant differences in lightning disaster vulnerability among different types of disaster prone bodies;take the design review and regular testing of lightning protection devices in the venue as a consideration indicator for lightning protection and disaster reduction capabilities.At the same time,this article takes Jintan District as an example to use this technical scheme for lightning disaster risk zoning and compare it with the standard for discussion.This plan more scientifically and reasonably reflects the risk characteristics of lightning disasters in the assessed area,and is also more in line with the original intention of precise implementation and targeted lightning protection and disaster reduction work in this census and assessment zoning work.

lightning disaster risk assessmentlightning dangerousnessvulnerabilityrefinement

焦雪、李福洪、周俊驰、张艳华

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江苏省气象灾害防御技术中心,南京 210041

江苏省基础地理信息中心,南京 210000

雷电灾害风险区划 致灾因子危险性 脆弱性 精细化

江苏省气象局面上资助项目江苏省自然科学基金资助项目

KM202309BK20191094

2024

气象科学
江苏省气象学会

气象科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.925
ISSN:1009-0827
年,卷(期):2024.44(4)