Evaluation of daily precipitation forecast ability over Zhejiang Province within the extended-range and preliminary statistical interpretation-application for CFSv2
Evaluation of daily precipitation forecast ability over Zhejiang Province within the extended-range and preliminary statistical interpretation-application for CFSv2
With long-term hindcast and 6-year real-time forecast data of CFSv2,prediction ability on daily precipitation over Zhejiang Province at Short-medium Range(SMR,1-10 d)and Extended Range(ER,11-30 d)by model were comprehensively analyzed.The Systematic Bias Correction(SBC)technology was proposed and conducted for interpretation-application to enhance the forecast capability.Results show that the reforecast skill decreases rapidly in the SMR;while in the ER,the skill declines much more slowly.Generally speaking,the correlation coefficient in the SMR is far higher than that in the ER,however,the root-mean-squared error in both spans can be comparable.As for the seasonal variation,the hindcast skill is relatively high in autumn and winter while relatively low in spring and summer.The reforecast results display remarkable systematic biases,which keep stable in all of the forecast dates(leading 1-30 d).After employing the SBC technology to carry out interpretation-application,the hindcast skill gets an obvious improvement in ER.When the SBC strategy is applied on the CFSv2 real-time forecast,the real-time forecast skill has been increased to a certain extent,especially for the ER.
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