首页|CFSv2对浙江省延伸期逐日降水预报性能评估及解释应用初探

CFSv2对浙江省延伸期逐日降水预报性能评估及解释应用初探

扫码查看
原文链接
  • 万方数据
  • 维普
利用CFSv2长序列回报资料和近6 a实时预报数据，系统分析了模式对浙江短中期(Short-medium Range，SMR，1～10 d)和延伸期(Extended Range，ER，11～30 d)逐日降水的预测性能，并基于系统误差订正(Systematic Bias Correction，SBC)技术开展了解释应用。结果表明:(1)模式回报技巧在SMR时段快速衰减，而在ER时段的衰减明显趋缓;SMR时段的相关系数远高于ER时段，但这两个时段的均方根误差较为接近;(2)从季节演变来看，模式技巧在秋冬季较高而在春夏季相对较低;(3)模式回报结果表现出显著的系统性偏差，这一偏差在各个起报日(提前1～30d起报)中稳定存在，采用SBC技术开展解释应用，发现订正后模式的回报技巧在ER时段显著提升;(4)进一步将SBC技术应用于实时预报，发现实时预报的技巧也得到了一定的改善，且ER时段的改进效果更为显著。
Evaluation of daily precipitation forecast ability over Zhejiang Province within the extended-range and preliminary statistical interpretation-application for CFSv2
With long-term hindcast and 6-year real-time forecast data of CFSv2,prediction ability on daily precipitation over Zhejiang Province at Short-medium Range(SMR,1-10 d)and Extended Range(ER,11-30 d)by model were comprehensively analyzed.The Systematic Bias Correction(SBC)technology was proposed and conducted for interpretation-application to enhance the forecast capability.Results show that the reforecast skill decreases rapidly in the SMR;while in the ER,the skill declines much more slowly.Generally speaking,the correlation coefficient in the SMR is far higher than that in the ER,however,the root-mean-squared error in both spans can be comparable.As for the seasonal variation,the hindcast skill is relatively high in autumn and winter while relatively low in spring and summer.The reforecast results display remarkable systematic biases,which keep stable in all of the forecast dates(leading 1-30 d).After employing the SBC technology to carry out interpretation-application,the hindcast skill gets an obvious improvement in ER.When the SBC strategy is applied on the CFSv2 real-time forecast,the real-time forecast skill has been increased to a certain extent,especially for the ER.

forecast skill evaluationextended rangecorrelation coefficientroot-mean-squared errorseasonal variationsystematic bias correction

葛敬文、马浩、刁逸菲、樊高峰、李正泉、刘长征

展开 >

浙江省气候中心,杭州 310000

国家气候中心,北京 100081

预报技巧评估 延伸期时段 相关系数 均方根误差 季节变化 系统误差订正

浙江省自然科学基金联合基金资助项目浙江省基础公益研究计划资助项目浙江省基础公益研究计划资助项目浙江省重点研发计划资助项目浙江省气象局重点资助项目浙江省气象局重点资助项目中国气象局复盘总结专项项目

LZJMD24D050002LGF19D050001LGF22D0500072021C020362022ZD092020ZD14FPZJ2023-052

2024

10.12306/2024jms.0017

气象科学
江苏省气象学会

气象科学

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.925
ISSN：1009-0827
年,卷(期)：2024.44(4)