The 13 global climate model in CMIP6 were selected,and CN05.1 data was used as the measured data to simulate China's temperature from 1961 to 2014.The model capabilities were ranked using BMA and Taylor graph,and BMA was compared with the Arithmetic Average(AVG)ensemble results.Results show that the Taylor graph score and BMA weight are basically consistent in the evaluation of the best and worst models,and the two models with the best simulation effect are ACCESS-ESM1-5 and INM-CM5-0.The BMA ensemble results are better than that of AVG.The annual average temperatures in China by CN05.1,BMA and AVG methods are 6.18,5.95 and 4.92 ℃,respectively.The BMA method minimizes the overall systematic error through weight adjustment.The CMIP6 climate model ensemble of BMA and AVG has little difference between the spatial distribution of China's temperature simulation and the actual measurement,but the regional distributions are different.The BMA method can not only effectively evaluate the CMIP6 models,but also the temporal and spatial changes of the ensemble results are closer to the measured values.
关键词
CMIP6/气候模式/中国气温/贝叶斯模型平均/集合模拟
Key words
CMIP6/climate model/China's temperature/Bayesian model average/ensemble simulate
维普
万方数据