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气象学报（英文版）
中国气象学会
气象学报（英文版）

中国气象学会

丁一汇

双月刊

0894-0525

cmsams@163.com

010-68407634

100081

北京中关村南大街46号

气象学报（英文版）/Journal Acta Meteorologica SinicaCSCDCSTPCD北大核心SCI
查看更多>>中国气象学会的官方刊物《气象学报》于1925年7月创刊。英文版于1987年9月创刊，1988年至2008年出版季刊，2009年改为双月刊。
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    Deep Learning-Based Automatic Identification of Gust Fronts from Weather Radar Data

    Haoran ZHANGJiafeng ZHENGChao LIUJunling DONG...
    1021-1031页
    查看更多>>摘要：Gust fronts,which are characterized by strong winds and intense wind shear,pose a threat to both aviation and pub-lic safety.To aid forecasters in issuing timely warnings for this hazardous weather phenomenon,a deep learning-based automatic gust front identification algorithm is proposed in this study.The algorithm utilizes Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network(Mask R-CNN),a state-of-the-art instance segmentation model,trained on a large dataset of 2623 gust front samples from S-band weather radar volume scans in East China and the North China Plain between 2009 and 2016.Extensive data preprocessing and manual annotation are performed to prepare the training dataset.The optimized model achieves impressive performance on a test set of 604 samples,with a detection probability of 93.21％,a false alarm rate of 3.60％,a missed alarm rate of 6.79％,and a critical success index of 90.08％.The algorithm demonstrates robust identification capabilities across gust fronts of varying scales,types,and parent thunderstorm systems,highlighting its operational applicability.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    On the Revival Mechanism of Typhoon Doksuri(2023)Remnants after Its Landfall

    Chunyi XIANGLin DONGYu LANHui WANG...
    1032-1046页
    查看更多>>摘要：After landfall,tropical cyclone(TC)remnants may maintain or even rejuvenate and incur catastrophic disasters.What leads to the revival of TC remnants over land remains elusive.In this study,the revival mechanism of Typhoon Doksuri(2023)remnants is extensively explored.Doksuri brought severe damage to the Chinese mainland after its landfall.The remnants vortex of Doksuri sustained an inland trajectory for 3 days and underwent a total maintenance of 60 h,with a revival of 18 h.Based on multi-source observations and ERA5 reanalysis data,by calculation of moist potential vorticity and analysis of slantwise vorticity development(SVD),this study unveils that while maintaining a significant warm-core structure over the course of maintenance and revival,the Doksuri remnants transported suffi-cient moisture in the mid-lower troposphere,which intensified the north-south temperature and humidity gradients,causing tilting of the isentropic surfaces remarkably.According to the SVD theory,the tilting gave rise to vorticity development and forced upward air motion on the northern side of the remnant vortex.Moreover,numerical sensitiv-ity experiments based on the WRF model reveal that the topography of Taihang Mountains and the diabatic heating associated with surface and convective latent heat fluxes also played important roles in the revival of the Doksuri remnants.The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms derived by this study will help improve understanding and prediction of the disasters induced by TC remnants.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Analysis of Uncertainties in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Simulations of Land Breeze and Nocturnal Coastal Rainfall in South China

    Ling HUANGLanqiang BAIYunji ZHANG
    1047-1063页
    查看更多>>摘要：Through daily convection-permitting ensemble simulations conducted over a 3-month period,the forecast uncer-tainty for the land breeze and associated coastal rainfall during early-summer rainy season over South China is in-vestigated.The ensemble includes 12 sets of physics parameterization schemes for boundary layer,radiation,surface la-yer,and land surface processes.Observations from air-sea buoys at sea,coastal weather stations,and radiosondes are employed to evaluate the diurnal variations and vertical structures of the simulated land breezes.Results suggest that the forecast uncertainty of land breeze circulations is closely associated with the model's representation of the noc-turnal near-surface air temperature on land sides.A systematic underestimation of nocturnal air temperature is recog-nized in most ensemble members,while the diverse errors of daytime air temperature on land can be diminished through the ensemble mean.The cold bias tends to create stronger land breezes,resulting in prolonged and wide-spread coastal rainfall through more intensive coastal convergence.By comparing the relative contributions of mul-tiple parameterization schemes,it is found that the systematic underestimation for nocturnal air temperature primar-ily results from the surface layer and land surface parameterization schemes.To improve the nighttime temperature forecast over this rainfall hotspot,it is essential to implement an advanced land surface model that incorporates com-plex thermodynamic processes tailored to this climate regime.Additionally,improved parameterization schemes for the planetary boundary layer and surface layer are necessary to enhance the nocturnal turbulent intensity under near-neutral conditions.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Optimizing Clear Air Turbulence Forecasts Using the K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm

    Aoqi GUYe WANG
    1064-1077页
    查看更多>>摘要：The complexity and unpredictability of clear air turbulence(CAT)pose significant challenges to aviation safety.Accurate prediction of turbulence events is crucial for reducing flight accidents and economic losses.However,tradi-tional turbulence prediction methods,such as ensemble forecasting techniques,have certain limitations:they only consider turbulence data from the most recent period,making it difficult to capture the nonlinear relationships present in turbulence.This study proposes a turbulence forecasting model based on the K-nearest neighbor(KNN)algorithm,which uses a combination of eight CAT diagnostic features as the feature vector and introduces CAT diagnostic fea-ture weights to improve prediction accuracy.The model calculates the results of seven years of CAT diagnostics from 125 to 500 hPa obtained from the ECMWF fifth-generation reanalysis dataset(ERA5)as feature vector inputs and combines them with the labels of Pilot Reports(PIREP)annotated data,where each sample contributes to the predic-tion result.By measuring the distance between the current CAT diagnostic variable and other variables,the model de-termines the climatically most similar neighbors and identifies the turbulence intensity category caused by the cur-rent variable.To evaluate the model's performance in diagnosing high-altitude turbulence over Colorado,PIREP cases were randomly selected for analysis.The results show that the weighted KNN(W-KNN)model exhibits higher skill in turbulence prediction,and outperforms traditional prediction methods and other machine learning models(e.g.,Random Forest)in capturing moderate or greater(MOG)level turbulence.The performance of the model was confirmed by evaluating the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,maximum True Skill Statistic(maxTSS=0.552),and reliability plot.A robust score(area under the curve:AUC=0.86)was obtained,and the model demon-strated sensitivity to seasonal and annual climate fluctuations.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Snow-Enhancement Conditions and Seeding Simulation of Stratiform Clouds in the Bayanbulak Test Area in China

    Lei WEIYueqin SHIWeiguo LIUGang LI...
    1078-1092页
    查看更多>>摘要：In this study,we employed a three-dimensional mesoscale cold-cloud seeding model to simulate the microphysical impacts of artificial ice crystals used as cloud seeding catalysts.Our objective was to elucidate the mechanism of snowfall enhancement in stratiform clouds in the Bayanbulak test area of Xinjiang,China.The results indicated that the optimal seeding time was the early stages of weather system development.In this case,the optimal seeding zone was identified as the northwest of the test area,especially near the cloud top(altitudes between 3500 and 4000 m,temperatures range-11 to-15℃),and the ideal concentration of catalyst was with ice crystal density of 1.0 × 107 kg 1 within the target area.Under such conditions,the total precipitation rate in the seeding-affected area in-creased to 50.1 mm h-1.The results also showed that the favorable seeding region was featured by high content of su-percooled water and low population of natural ice crystals,where artificial ice crystals could substantially increase the snowfall.This augmentation typically appeared in a unimodal pattern,with the peak formed within 2-3 h after seeding.Seeding in the ice-water mixed zone of a supercooled cloud facilitated rapid ice crystal growth to snow-flake pieces via the Bergeron process,which in turn consumed more supercooled water via collision-coalescence with cloud water droplets.Simultaneously,the intensive consumption of supercooled water impeded the riming pro-cess and reduced the formation of graupel particles within the cloud.The dispersion of artificial ice crystals extended over tens of kilometers horizontally;however,in the vertical direction most particles remained approximately 1 km below the seeding layer,due to limited vertical ascent rate in the stratiform clouds restricting upward movement of artificial ice crystals.The above results help better understand the snowfall enhancement mechanism in stratiform clouds and facilitate related weather modification practice.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Exploring Marine Cloud Brightening with a Reduced Complexity Model

    Muhammad Mueed KHANChristopher RUNYANShahzad BASHIRAbdul Basit AMJAD...
    1093-1104页
    查看更多>>摘要：Throughout the industrial period,anthropogenic aerosols have likely offset approximately one-third of the warm-ing caused by greenhouse gases.Marine cloud brightening aims to capitalize on one aspect of this phenomenon to po-tentially mitigate global warming by enhancing cloud reflectivity through adjustments in cloud droplet concentration.This study employs a simplified yet comprehensive modeling framework,integrating an open-source parcel model for aerosol activation,a radiation transport model based on commercial computational fluid dynamics code,and as-similated meteorological data.The reduced complexity model addresses the challenges of rapid radiation transfer cal-culations while managing uncertainties in aerosol-cloud-radiation(ACR)parameterizations.Despite using an un-coupled ACR mechanism and omitting feedback between clouds and aerosols,our results closely align with observa-tions,validating the robustness of our assumptions and methodology.This demonstrates that even simplified models,supported by parcel modeling and observational constraints,can achieve accurate radiation transfer calculations com-parable to advanced climate models.We analyze how variations in droplets size and concentration affect cloud al-bedo for geoengineering applications.Optimal droplet sizes,typically within the 20-35-pm range,significantly in-crease cloud albedo by approximately 28％-57％across our test cases.We find that 45-pm droplets transmit about 29％more solar radiation than 25-pm droplets.Effective albedo changes require injection concentrations exceeding background levels by around 30％,diminishing as concentrations approach ambient levels.Considerations must also be given to the spray pattern of droplet injections,as effective deployment can influence cloud thickness and sub-sequently impact cloud albedo.This research provides insights into the feasibility and effectiveness of using a re-duced complexity model for marine cloud brightening with frontal cyclone and stratus cumulus clouds,and emphas-izes the need to also consider background droplets size and concentration than just meteorological conditions.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Long-Term Observation of Black Carbon and Its Relationship with Aerosol Radiative Forcing over South Asia

    Nimashi P.M.CHATHURANGIKAMozammel HAQUEMatthews NYASULURehana KHAN...
    1105-1121页
    查看更多>>摘要：Black carbon(BC)is one of the major aerosol components with relatively high implications on climatic patterns through its radiative forcing(RF).South Asia has recently experienced an increased concentration of pollution;however,relatively fewer studies have been carried out on long-term assessment of BC and its implications.The present study analyzed the long-term concentration of BC in selected urban locations over South Asia using the Mod-em-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications,version 2(MERRA-2).The study employed statistical analysis,including linear regression techniques,to assess the long-term concentration of BC.The results show that a rapid increase of BC is observed over most urban locations of South Asia with the predominance in winter and hence requires strict regional control measures to reduce the excess concentration of BC in the atmosphere.High concentra-tion of BC in winter is attributed to anthropogenic activities and changes in meteorological conditions that enhance the accumulation of pollutants in the atmosphere.The relationship of BC with cloud top temperature and cloud ef-fective radius demonstrates the direct and indirect effect of BC on cloud properties in this region.The RF results re-veal that aerosol optical depth has positive aerosol RF in the atmosphere and negative RF at the top of the atmo-sphere(TOA)as well as at the bottom of the atmosphere(BOA).Negative RF at the TOA indicates less forcing effi-ciency due to fewer BC aerosols.On the other hand,averaging aerosol RF within the atmosphere reveals positive for-cing,which suggests the efficiency force exerted by BC aerosols after absorbing solar radiation.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Data Assimilation Enhances WRF-Chem Performance in Modeling Volcanic Ash Clouds from Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Eruption

    Hosni SNOUNMohammad Mosaed ALAHMADIAmirhossein NIKFALAbderrazak ARIF...
    1122-1140页
    查看更多>>摘要：Volcanic eruptions release large amounts of ash clouds and gas aerosols into the atmosphere,which can be simu-lated by air quality prediction models.However,the performance of these models remains unsatisfactory,even though both relevant physics and chemistry are considered.Hence,exploring the approaches for improvement such as inclusion of data assimilation is significative.In this study,we depict the modeling of the volcanic ash dispersion from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano,which erupted in a series of large explosions in late December 2021 and early January 2022.On 15 January 2022,a particularly significant explosion sent a massive ash cloud high into the atmosphere.We used the inline Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry(WRF-Chem)and incorporated meteorological data assimilation within the Flux Adjusting Surface Data Assimila-tion System(FASDAS).We compared three forecast scenarios:one with only meteorology and no chemistry(OMET),one with gas and aerosol chemistry and no assimilation(NODA),and one with both chemistry and assimil-ation(FASDAS).We found that FASDAS resulted in lower planetary boundary layer height(PBLH),downward sur-face shortwave flux,and 2-m temperature by up to 800 m,200 W m-2,and 6℃ on the land portion,respectively,while the opposite was observed near the eruption site.We validated the model against the observations and the res-ults showed that FASDAS significantly enhanced the model performance in retrieving meteorological variables.However,the simulations also revealed significant biases in the concentration of volcanic ash around the ash clouds.Data from the Copernicus TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument Sentinel-5 Precursor(TROPOMI-S5P)showed a westward trend of the total SO2 emissions.This work demonstrates the significant contribution of data assimilation to the results of operational air quality predictions during violent volcanic eruption events.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Dual-Satellite Stereoscopic Retrieval of Cloud Top Height Using FY-4A and FY-4B

    Xiaotong HUANGYilun CHENPuxi LI
    1141-1149页
    查看更多>>摘要：We developed a dual-satellite stereoscopic cloud top height(CTH)retrieval algorithm based on the visible band(0.65 pm)data of Fengyun-4A(FY-4A)and FY-4B.This algorithm offers an extensive longitude coverage from 55°E to 177°W.The analysis of system error based on error theory shows that the CTH we retrieved has an accuracy of 0.20-0.88 km and an uncertainty of 0.24-1.08 km over the entire area.The space resolution of the CTH we retrieved reached less than 0.005°.We conducted a CTH retrieval experiment and proceeded to compare our results with FY-4B's CTH product and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations(CALIPSO).Com-pared to CALIPSO,the CTH we retrieved has a bias of-2.4 km and the correlation coefficient is 0.80.In general,two next-generation geostationary satellites were used simultaneously to retrieve the CTH in our study,demonstrat-ing the ability of this satellite combination to obtain better-quality CTH products by stereoscopic retrieval.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据

    Impacts of Tropical and Extratropical Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation on a Persistent Low-Temperature Rain and Snow Event in Southern China in February 2022

    Xiaojuan SUNYuting HUANGChuhan LUPanxing WANG...
    1150-1166页
    查看更多>>摘要：In February 2022,a persistent low-temperature rain and snow event(LRSE)occurred in the central Pan-Pearl River Delta(CPPRD)region of southern China,causing severe damage and economic losses.During the LRSE,both the temperature and precipitation fields exhibited quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)signals over the CPPRD region.Circulation analysis revealed that the eastward propagation of Rossby waves at mid-high latitudes enhanced the Baikal blocking high and the Mongolian high,facilitating the continuous southward migration of cold air.The strengthening India-Burma trough(i.e.,the southern branch trough)brought abundant warm and humid airflow,con-verging with cold air from the north in the CPPRD region.Moreover,deep convective activity originating in the northern Indian Ocean became exceptionally active,propagating to southern China and providing dynamic lifting conditions for precipitation in the study region.The combined effects of tropical and extratropical weather systems resulted in the LRSE occurrence.Partial lateral forcing(PLF)experiments were performed to quantify the contribu-tions of the QBWO signals from different boundaries of the region.The extratropical QBWO signal from the north-ern boundary led to a temperature decrease of 1.61℃,with 77.83％of the whole region experiencing cooling greater than 1℃,whereas the tropical QBWO signal from the southwestern boundary caused an increase in precipitation of 13.1 mm day-1,with more than 40％of the entire region experiencing a precipitation increase of over 5 mm day-1.This study provides quantitative evidence that the QBWO was a key factor contributing to the occurrence of the LRSE,which can be used as a precursor signal for extended-range forecasts of future LRSEs.
      原文链接:
    • 国家科技期刊平台
    • NETL
    • NSTL
    • 万方数据