首页|Analysis of Uncertainties in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Simulations of Land Breeze and Nocturnal Coastal Rainfall in South China
Analysis of Uncertainties in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Simulations of Land Breeze and Nocturnal Coastal Rainfall in South China
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国家科技期刊平台
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Analysis of Uncertainties in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Simulations of Land Breeze and Nocturnal Coastal Rainfall in South China
Through daily convection-permitting ensemble simulations conducted over a 3-month period,the forecast uncer-tainty for the land breeze and associated coastal rainfall during early-summer rainy season over South China is in-vestigated.The ensemble includes 12 sets of physics parameterization schemes for boundary layer,radiation,surface la-yer,and land surface processes.Observations from air-sea buoys at sea,coastal weather stations,and radiosondes are employed to evaluate the diurnal variations and vertical structures of the simulated land breezes.Results suggest that the forecast uncertainty of land breeze circulations is closely associated with the model's representation of the noc-turnal near-surface air temperature on land sides.A systematic underestimation of nocturnal air temperature is recog-nized in most ensemble members,while the diverse errors of daytime air temperature on land can be diminished through the ensemble mean.The cold bias tends to create stronger land breezes,resulting in prolonged and wide-spread coastal rainfall through more intensive coastal convergence.By comparing the relative contributions of mul-tiple parameterization schemes,it is found that the systematic underestimation for nocturnal air temperature primar-ily results from the surface layer and land surface parameterization schemes.To improve the nighttime temperature forecast over this rainfall hotspot,it is essential to implement an advanced land surface model that incorporates com-plex thermodynamic processes tailored to this climate regime.Additionally,improved parameterization schemes for the planetary boundary layer and surface layer are necessary to enhance the nocturnal turbulent intensity under near-neutral conditions.
land breezeforecast uncertaintynocturnal coastal rainfallensemble forecast
Ling HUANG、Lanqiang BAI、Yunji ZHANG
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Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Academy of Meteorological Research,China Meteorological Administration(CMA),Guangzhou 510640,China
Foshan Tornado Research Center,and CMA Tornado Key Laboratory,Foshan 528315,China
Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science,Pennsylvania State University,Pennsylvania 16802,USA
land breeze forecast uncertainty nocturnal coastal rainfall ensemble forecast
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
