Ensemble Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Risk under 1.5 and 2.0℃ Warming Targets in the Yangtze River Basin

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外文标题：Ensemble Assessment of Extreme Precipitation Risk under 1.5 and 2.0℃ Warming Targets in the Yangtze River Basin

外文摘要：Changes in precipitation extremes and associated risks under the 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming targets in the Yangtze River basin(YRB)were assessed.The projections from 10 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)were bias-corrected and averaged with Bayesian and arithmetic mean methods,respectively.The results show that the Bayesian weights can reflect the performance of each GCM in capturing seasonal precipitation extremes.Thus,its multimodel ensemble projections noticeably improve the per-formance of the mean,interannual variability,and trends of precipitation extremes.The areal-mean risks of Rx5day(maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation)are projected to increase by ratios of 3.3 in summer,2.9 in autumn,2.2 in spring,and 1.9 in winter under the 1.5℃ target.Spatially,the northwestern part of the YRB may experience the highest risk of increments in Rx5day extreme in summer and autumn.In response to an additional 0.5℃ warming from 1.5 to 2.0℃,the risks of seasonal Rx5day extreme for all 20-,50-,and 100-yr return periods are projected to in-crease respectively.The higher probabilities of extreme precipitation events under the warming targets may cause more hazardous flooding;therefore,new strategies and infrastructures for climate change and hydrological risk mitig-ation are imperative in the YRB.

外文关键词：

Equi-Ratio Cumulative Distribution Functions matching method(ERCDFm)1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming targetsextreme precipitationrisk ratioBayesian model averagingCoupled Model Intercom-parison Project phase 6(CMIP6)Yangtze River basin

作者：

Xingguo MO、Shuxu YUE、Shi HU、Suxia LIU

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作者单位：

Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101

College of Sino-Danish Center,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049

National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation,Beijing 100035

关键词：

Equi-Ratio Cumulative Distribution Functions matching method(ERCDFm) 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming targets extreme precipitation risk ratio Bayesian model averaging Coupled Model Intercom-parison Project phase 6(CMIP6) Yangtze River basin

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1007/s13351-024-3144-8

气象学报(英文版)

中国气象学会

气象学报(英文版)

CSTPCD

影响因子：0.57

ISSN：0894-0525

年,卷(期)：2024.38(6)