Incidence trends and age-period-cohort analysis of leishmaniasis in China from 1990 to 2019
Objective To analyze the change trend of leishmaniasis incidence in China from 1990 to 2019,and investi-gate the influence of age,period and cohort factors on the incidence of leishmaniasis for reference to develop the preven-tion and control policy for this prevalence in China.Methods By the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Database as in-formation source,the data on the incidence,crude incidence and standardized incidence of leishmaniasis in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend of leishmaniasis stan-dardized incidence in China from 1990 to 2019,and the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percent-age change(AAPC)were calculated.An age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age,period and co-hort factors on the incidence of leishmaniasis in China.Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence of leishmaniasis in China was decreased from 4 487 to 904 cases,with a decrease of 79.85%.The crude incidence and the standard inci-dence were declined from 0.38/100 000 to 0.06/100 000 and from 0.37/100 000 to 0.08/100 000,with a drop of 84.21%and 78.38%,respectively.The Joinpoint regression model showed that the standardized incidence of leishmaniasis in the whole population,men and women in China from 1990 to 2019 represented a decreasing trend,and AAPC was-5.00%,-5.06%and-4.95%,respectively,with statistically significant differences(t=-90.65,-90.70,-90.82,all P<0.01).The results of age-period-cohort model analysis suggested that the risk of leishmaniasis in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 was decreased with age(RR:5.24 to 0.23)and period(RR:2.14 to 0.67),and the risk of leishmaniasis was less-ened with later birth cohort(RR:7.86 to 0.12).Conclusion The low prevalence of leishmaniasis in China from 1990 to 2019 indicates that the prevention and control of leishmaniasis in China has achieved remarkable results,yet it is still necessary to strengthen the intervention of the vector and the protection of high-risk populations to reduce the burden of leishmaniasis in the key region in China.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
