Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of dengue fever in Jinghong City,China-Myanmar border region by spatial-temporal multicomponent model
Objective To understand the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of dengue fever and the fac-tors affecting the dengue transmission in Jinghong City located in the China-Myanmar border area in 2019.Methods The daily incidences of dengue fever were initially collected in Jinghong City in 2019.Then the spatial-temporal multi-component model on the Power-law algorithm basis was developed using population density,GDP per capita,daily aver-age temperature,daily average relative humidity and sunshine hours as covariates to analyze the spatial and temporal transmission characteristics of dengue fever in different regions.The fitting effect of the model was evaluated by the Akaike information criterion(AIC)values.Results In 2019,a total of 3 303 local cases of dengue fever were report-ed in Jinghong City,with an incidence of 763.44/100 000 population.The spatio-temporal multicomponent model showed the best fitting effect if GDP per capita was included in the autoregressive compartment,population density,dai-ly average temperature,daily mean maximum temperature and daily average relative humidity were included in the en-demic compartment(AIC=2 317).At this point,the autoregressive compartment,the epidemic component and the endem-ic compartment were 0.215 1[95%CI:(0.081 2,0.570 2)],0.000 4[95%CI:(0.000 2,0.001 0)]and 3.015 2[95%CI:(1.650 7,5.507 8)],respectively.The strength of effect of the covariates was 2.815 9[95%CI:(0.021 6,367.168 5)],1.822 7[95%CI:(1.497 6,2.218 3)],1.208 8[95%CI:(1.057 7,1.381 6)],0.356 1[95%CI:(0.011 9,10.673 9)]and 0.310 4[95%CI:(0.003 6,126.548 2)]respectively for the average daily relative humidity,population density,GDP per capita,mean daily air temperature,and mean daily maximum temperature.Analysis on the incidence over 20 cases in an area demonstrated autocorrelation component produced greater effect on the incidence in Yunjinghong Community,Xi-shuangbanna Tourist Resort and Jinghong Industrial Park.However,the endemic compartment of Gasa Town,Men-glong Town and Menghan Town were relatively large.Conclusion Dengue fever prevalence varies in different areas in Jinghong City,with spatial-temporal transmission trends.GDP per capita may lead to following epidemic from previ-ous situation of dengue fever prevalence,and population density,daily average temperature,daily mean maximum tem-perature and daily average relative humidity can result in the risks of dengue fever epidemic in the local area.
Dengue feverBorder area of China-MyanmarJinghong CitySpatial-temporal multicomponent model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
