Analysis on the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and surveillance results of animal hosts in Jilin Province from 2018 to 2023
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and predict the incidence trend of hemorrhagic fe-ver with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Jilin Province for evidence in prevention and control of thin acute infections in 2024.Methods The incidence data of HFRS in Jilin Province from 2018 to 2023 were collected from the China Dis-ease Prevention and Control Information System,and the monitoring data on the host animals in Jilin Province were al-so obtained.Then all data were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological method.An autoregressive integrated mov-ing average(ARIMA)model was established,by which the number of cases of HFRS in Jilin Province from 2018 to 2023 was fitted to predict the incidence of HFRS in the next year.Results A total of 1 993 cases of HFRS were re-ported Jilin Province from 2018 to 2023,during which the number of cases(578 cases)and the incidence(2.13/100 000)were the highest in 2018,and then presented with overall downward trend.The number of cases(158 cases)and the inci-dence(0.67/100 000)were the lowest in 2023.Annual reported cases peaked at April to June(635 cases,31.86%)and October to December(724 cases,36.33%).Of the reported cases,1 511 were males,and 482 females,with a male to fe-male ration of 3.13∶1.The incidences were reported in all age groups,with the population aged 30-64 years being domi-nant(1 464 cases,73.46%),and the farmers were most affected by occupational distribution(1 242 cases,62.32%).The cases were reported in all cities(prefectures),and the top three regions in terms of the cumulative number of reported cases were Tonghua(440 cases,22.08%),Baicheng(357 cases,17.91%)and Yanbian(335 cases,16.81%).The top three monitoring sites with the highest cumulative rat density in residential areas in spring were Hunchun City(5.26%),Lishu County(4.36%)and Shuangyang District(3.81%),and the top three monitoring sites with the highest cumulative rat density in the wild were Hunchun City(5.55%),Panshi City(4.00%)and Shuangyang District(3.47%).The top three monitoring sites with the highest cumulative rat density in residential areas in autumn were Hunchun City(4.43%),Shuangyang District(4.09%)and Fusong County(3.84%).The top three monitoring sites with the highest cu-mulative rat density in the wild were Hunchun City(6.84%),Shuangyang District(4.21%)and Panshi City(4.00%).The captured rodents were mainly Rattus norvegicus and Apodemus agrarius.The results of time series analysis showed that ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12 could better fit and predict the number of HFRS in Jilin Province(MAE=6.56,MRE=-0.16%).The average monthly number of incidence predicted in 2024 would be 7 cases.Conclusion The incidence of HFRS in Jilin Province is generally on a downward trend,the dominant rat species responsible for the transmission vectors are Rattus norvegicus and Apodemus agrarius.The monthly 2024 incidence is expected to be lower than the 2023.In the fu-ture,relevant health sections should continue to focus on monitoring and early warning of this acute infections.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndromeARIMA modelTime series analysisHost animalJilin Province
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