Prediction of mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea based on the PredRNN++model
Based on 26 years of data on sea level anomalies,sea surface wind speed anomalies,and sea surface temperature anomalies,using the spatiotemporal series prediction model PredRNN++,this paper predicts the trajectory of mesoscale eddies in the South China Sea and dipole activity in the western South China Sea over a period of 1 to 28 days.The results indicate that the PredRNN++model can comprehensively consider the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the entire South China Sea region and the role of environmental wind and temperature fiields,and has good performance in short-term(1～2weeks)and medium-term(3～4weeks)forecasting.This model has the ability to predict the generation and disappearance of eddies to a certain extent,and can control the 4-cycle prediction error of eddy trajectories to 42.1 km.For eddies with a lifespan of less than 100 days,the mid-term position and amplitude prediction error are small.In addition,the model can better track the evolution and intensity change of dipole structure at any time point under the monthly average,4-day average and any forecast time effect in August-November.The prediction error of dipole eddy related attributes is the smallest and there are interannual and type differences.In 2017,the amplitude position,prediction and radius error of eddy 1-4 cycles are the smallest,which are 40～60 km,3～5 cm and 20～40 km respectively,and the prediction effect of cyclone position is better than that of anticyclone.
mesoscale eddiesdipole off eastern Vietnamocean forecastdeep learning
万方数据
维普
