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跨境水资源空间均衡分配机理与优化模型

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在公平合理利用原则下,从价值取向、影响机制、理想愿景3个方面分析跨境水资源空间均衡分配机理,基于多目标决策理论构建跨境水资源空间均衡分配优化模型.优化模型的目标函数由流域整体效益目标和均衡性目标组成,约束条件包括可用水量限制约束、用水保障约束、公平性约束、尊重历史性约束等.提出了跨境河流可分配水量、流域国需水量两个参数的测算方法,以及求解优化模型的模拟退火算法.针对澜湄流域旱季缺水状况进行实例分析,结果表明:本文得到的优化分配方案,即中国、缅甸、老挝、泰国、柬埔寨、越南6个流域国的分配水量分别为(163.13,21.33,84.17,134.73,68.31,120.33)亿立方米,相对现状用水方案其主要评价指数均明显提升,验证了模型的可行性.
Mechanism and Optimization Model of Spatial Equilibrium Distribution of Cross-border Water Resources
Under the principle of fair and reasonable utilization,this study analyzes the mechanism of transboundary water re-sources'spatial equilibrium distribution from three aspects:value orientation,influence mechanism,and ideal vision,and builds an optimization model of transboundary water resources'spatial equilibrium distribution based on multi-objective decision-making theory.The objective function of the optimization model consists of the overall benefit objective and the e-quilibrium objective of the basin.The constraint conditions include the constraint of available water quantity,the constraint of water use guarantee,the constraint of fairness,the constraint of respecting history,etc.The calculation method of the distrib-utable water quantity of the transboundary river and the water demand of the basin country is proposed,and the simulated an-nealing algorithm is used to solve the optimization model.A case study on water shortage in the Lancang-Mekong River Ba-sin during the dry season shows that:The optimal water allocation scheme obtained in this study is(163.13,21.33,84.17,134.73,68.31,120.33)m3 for China,Myanmar,Laos,Thailand,Cambodia,and Vietnam,respectively.The main index of the water use scheme is significantly improved compared with the current situation,which verifies the feasibility of the mod-el.The optimization model proposed in this study provides a quantitative analysis method for achieving spatial equilibrium al-location of transboundary water resources.

transboundary water resourcesbasin countryspatial equilibrium allocationoptimization model

吴骁远、吴凤平

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河海大学商学院,南京 211100

江苏开放大学商学院,南京 210036

跨境水资源 流域国 空间均衡分配 优化模型

国家社会科学基金项目

17ZDA064

2024

软科学
四川省科学技术促进发展研究中心

软科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.333
ISSN:1001-8409
年,卷(期):2024.38(2)
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