The Risk Prediction of the PPP Project in China Based on the Bayesian Network
Based on the influence diagram and the related research on PPP project risk,the PPP project risk transmission re-lationship is identified.Then,142 questionnaires were used to obtain the data,and the expectation maximization(EM)algo-rithm and cumulative distribution function(CDF)algorithm were used to construct and verify the PPP project risk Bayesian network model.The results show that the prediction accuracy of this model is 77.81％,73.40％and 79.15％for invest-ment return,project function,and spillover effect,respectively.Using its learning and reasoning function,it is deduced that the key risk sources of PPP projects are project and government aspects,and the key risk events affecting investment returns are insufficient use and construction cost overrun risk.From the case analysis of a water PPP project,this model provides value for PPP project investment and risk management.
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万方数据
