经济政策不确定性与企业风险——基于双重中介效应与双重调节效应的分析
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Risk:Based on Double Mediating Effect and Double Moderating Effect
颜忠宝 1张跃化 1赵峰2
作者信息
- 1. 中央财经大学经济学院,北京 102206
- 2. 北京工商大学 国际经管学院,北京 100048
- 折叠
摘要
以2008-2021年沪深两市上市企业数据,实证检验了经济政策不确定性对于企业的风险冲击.研究发现:经济政策不确定性会增大企业风险水平;其中,企业内部道德风险加剧(管理层自利行为+大股东掏空行为)与企业外部融资条件收紧(融资约束+贷款成本)是上述影响的中介渠道;而企业完善的治理机制与信息披露水平可以有效缓解两者间的正向关系.异质性分析发现,经济政策不确定性对于市场地位较弱、行业竞争程度较高以及民营企业的风险冲击更大.
Abstract
Based on the data of listed enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2008 to 2021,this paper empirically tests the risk impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprises.It is found that economic policy uncertainty will increase en-terprises'risk levels.Mechanism analysis shows that the intensification of internal moral hazard(management self-inter-ested+major shareholders tunneling behavior)and the tightening of external financing conditions(financing constraints+loan costs)are the intermediary channels of the above effects.The perfect governance mechanism and information disclosure level can effectively alleviate the positive relationship between the two.Heterogeneity analysis shows that economic policy uncertainty has a greater impact on the risk of private enterprises with weak market position,high degree of industry competi-tion,and private enterprises.
关键词
经济政策不确定性/企业风险/掏空行为/治理水平/信息披露Key words
economic policy uncertainty/enterprise risk/tunneling behavior/governance level/information disclosure引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据