基于复杂网络演化博弈的颠覆性技术扩散研究
Research on Disruptive Technology Diffusion Based on Complex Network Evolutionary Game
何郁冰 1林欣慧1
作者信息
- 1. 福州大学经济与管理学院,福州 350108
- 折叠
摘要
针对颠覆性技术的侵蚀性与不确定性特征,结合复杂网络与演化博弈理论,设计了基于复杂网络的演化博弈模型,运用计算机仿真方法对颠覆性技术扩散特点进行考察.结果表明,颠覆性技术在新兴企业之间的扩散具有相对稳定性,但对在位企业之间的扩散表现出不可预测性;技术颠覆潜力和侵蚀能力的提高均无法保证颠覆性技术的完全扩散;网络结构特征对颠覆性技术的扩散效果影响显著.
Abstract
This paper combines the theories of complex networks and evolutionary games,develops a complex network-based evolutionary game model that emphasizes the characteristics of disruptive technologies,and uses computer simulation methods to investigate the macro and micro characteristics of the diffusion of this kind of technology.The results suggest that while the diffusion outcomes of disruptive technologies among new entrants are relatively predictable,the diffusion outcomes among incumbent firms exhibit a high degree of unpredictability.Increasing the disruptive potential of disruptive technolo-gies and the extent to which their encroachment on mainstream markets does not guarantee full diffusion.Characteristics of network structure have a significant impact on the diffusion of disruptive technologies.
关键词
颠覆性技术/技术扩散/复杂网络/演化博弈Key words
disruptive technologies/technology diffusion/complex networks/evolutionary games引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据