首页|京津冀协同发展的城市碳减排效应评估及机制分析

京津冀协同发展的城市碳减排效应评估及机制分析

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以京津冀协同发展战略的确立作为一项准自然实验,采用双重差分方法,系统探究京津冀协同发展对城市碳排放的溢出效应,并基于中介效应模型,进一步明晰协同发展助力城市碳减排的作用机制.结果发现:①协同发展战略的实施能够显著促进京津冀城市的碳减排,在考虑平行趋势和经过PSM-DID、安慰剂检验等稳健性检验后结论依然成立;②动态趋势上,协同发展的政策红利具有显著的时间滞后性,其碳减排效应大约在战略实施后的第4年开始凸显,且强度随时间推移持续强化;③异质性分析结果表明,协同发展战略对核心功能区城市和高碳排放城市碳减排的促进作用大于节点城市,对低碳排放城市的减排效果尚不显著;④区域协同发展能够通过推动产业结构高级化和科技创新助力城市碳减排,公共服务的一体化过程则可能由于基础设施的更新建设短期加剧城市碳排放.
Evaluation and Mechanism of Urban Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development
Taking the establishment of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper systematically studies the spillover effect of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei on urban carbon emissions using the difference-in-difference method and clarify the role of co-development in promoting urban carbon emission reduction mechanism using mediating effect model.The results show that:①The implementation of the co-development strategy significantly promotes the carbon emission reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and the conclusion was still valid after considering the parallel trend and the robustness tests such as PSM-DID and place-bo tests.②The policy effect has a significant time lag,becomes prominent about four years after its implementation,and continuously strengthens over time.③Heterogeneity analysis shows that the promotion effect of the policy on regional core cities and high-carbon emission cities is greater than that of node cities,and the policy effect on low-carbon emission cit-ies is not significant.④Regional coordinated development promotes urban carbon neutrality by promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and scientific and technological innovation,while the integration process of public services may have a short-term aggravating effect on urban carbon emissions due to the renewal of infrastructure.

carbon neutralitycoordinated developmentDID modelquasi-natural experimentBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei

蒋正云、刘庆芳、程依婷、宋金平

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北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875

碳中和 协同发展 DID模型 准自然实验 京津冀

国家自然科学基金项目

42171170

2024

软科学
四川省科学技术促进发展研究中心

软科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.333
ISSN:1001-8409
年,卷(期):2024.38(9)
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