A correct understanding of the impact of negative population growth on China's economic growth is of great significance for understanding and coping with the negative population growth problem that China may face in the future.Based on China's data from 2000 to 2020,a population-economic system model is constructed using the system dynamics method,and by setting up different scenarios,we simulate the change of negative population growth and its impact on economic growth in the future and we also ana-lyze the impact of the change of human capital and per capita consumption level on economic growth under the background of negative population growth.The results show that with negative population growth,China's total economic volume still shows an upward trend,and the total economic volume will not be reduced because of negative population growth,but negative population growth will hurt the growth rate of the total GDP,and it will be intensified with the increase of the negative population growth rate,but the reduction of the GDP rate and the total volume compared to the quantitative change is not obvious;The improvement of human capital and per capita consumption level can effectively alleviate or even offset the negative impact of negative population growth on economic growth,the faster the rate of human capital enhancement,the more obvious the enhancement,but the per capita consumption level is raised too quickly will have a significant inhibition of economic growth,when the consumption level is raised above a certain threshold,the GDP growth rate will be reduced.In the future,we should grasp the window of opportunity for China's population,stimulate the dividends of reform,establish a comprehensive policy support system that is compatible with the transformation of the mode of economic development and the development of the population,and be fully prepared to deal with the potential challenges brought about by the negative popula-tion growth,to promote China's economy to realize sustainable and healthy development.
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据
