China and India are the only major countries in the world with a population of more than 1 billion people.The population and socio-economic development of China and India,especially the issue of"demo-graphic dividend",has attracted wide attention.Most studies equate the contribution of population depen-dency ratio and other indicators to economic growth with demographic dividend,and lack the investigation of social and economic conditions.Although some studies have included the discussion of economic and social factors in the description of"population opportunity",the empirical research is almost absent.This paper constructs an evaluation system of the demographic dividend index that integrates the demographic opportunity and the economic condition,calculates the demographic dividend index of China and India in a holistic and phased way during 1990-2021,following a discussion on the relationship between demographic dividend index and economic development and a prediction of the future development.The results show that the demographic dividend of both China and India showed an increasing trend during 1990-2021.China's demographic dividend index and economic condition index were always higher than India's,but the population opportunity index began to be lower than India's since 2012.The gap of demographic divi-dend between China and India presents phased characteristics,generally experiencing two development stages:the relatively stable stage(1990-2011)under the balance of population opportunity and economic conditions,and the gradually expanding stage(2012-2021)dominated by economic conditions.Although the population opportunity index of China in the second stage is lower than that of India,driven by eco-nomic conditions,the demographic dividend index is still higher than India.There is a significant positive relationship between the population dividend index and per capita GDP,and the positive impact of the economic conditions index is relatively greater.Projections based on the ARIMA model show that China's demographic dividend is still higher than India's in the 2022-2035 period,and the gap between the two is further widened.The paper also discusses the second and third demographic dividend under the condition of population aging.
Demographic DividendDemographic OpportunityEconomic ConditionChina-India Com-parisonIndex Construction
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据
