A Study on Simulation and Calculation of Birth Population over a Long Time Span in China
In the long term,the assumption of unchanged fertility patterns will no longer hold true.In terms of research methods,this study abandoned the traditional total fertility rate method,expanded the estima-tion method of real cohort age specific fertility rate,indirectly estimated the age specific fertility rate of women of childbearing age in relevant birth cohorts by using all previous national population census data and sampling survey data,and used population indirect estimation technology to calculate the age specific fertility rate of female population in birth cohorts from 1975 to 2085 and its population size in childbearing age,as well as the number of Chinese born population in the long time span of 80 years in the future.Examining and analyzing the future changes in the number of births under different levels of fertility,if the age-specific fertility rate of childbearing women in the birth cohort is maintained,the number of births will fluctuate from 10.1 million in 2024 to 9.44 million in 2050,and then rapidly decrease from 9.44 million in 2050 to 4.95 million in 2100;If the birth rate of the birth cohort remains unchanged at 1.5,the number of births before 2047 will be over 11 million,and then rapidly decline to 6 million by 2100;If the birth rate of the birth cohort remains unchanged at 1.8,the number of births before 2045 will be over 14 million,and the number of births by 2100 will remain over 10 million;If the birth rate of the birth cohort remains at the replacement level of 2.1,the number of births from 2024 to 2100 will remain stable at over 16 million.It is found that the recent birth rate is mainly affected by the low birth rate,and the number of births in the medium and long term will not only be affected by the low birth rate,but also further reduce the size of women of childbearing age in the medium and long term due to the recent decline in birth rate,leading to a faster decline in the number of births in the medium and long term.At the same time,the fertility level required to maintain a certain number of births was also analyzed.If the number of births remains unchanged at 10 million,the birth rate of the birth cohort needs to rapidly increase from 1.137 in 2024 to 2.105 in 2069,and then remain around the replacement level of 2.1;If the number of births remains unchanged at 15 million,the birth rate of the birth cohort needs to increase from 1.705 in 2024 to 2.194 in 2056,and then slowly decline to around 2.1 at the replacement level;If the number of births remains unchanged at 20 million,the birth rate of the birth cohort needs to increase from 2.274 in 2024 to 2.674 in 2048,and then rapidly decline to around 2.1 at the replacement level.It has been found that increasing the incentives for birth policies in the near future,enhancing the effectiveness of birth policy support,and maintaining the highest possible birth level can alleviate the policy pressure of improving birth levels in the future,reserve space and accumulate energy for increasing the number of births in the future.The main policy inspiration is that 2024-2050 is an important window period for China to improve its fertility level,as well as a key opportunity period to achieve the medium and long-term population development strategy goals.It is recommended that Chinese government fully grasp the golden stage of fertility policy incentives,adopt more active measures for fertility incentives,and lay a solid foundation for achieving high-quality population development.
Long Time SpanNumber of BirthsBirth Cohort Fertility RateSimulation Calculation
万方数据
维普
