The continuous decline in the fertility rate in China has caused extensive attention.Due to limited data,there is less research on the cohort fertility level of Chinese women.Based on the 2017 China Fertility Survey data and from a cohort perspective,this paper calculates the average number of children ever born(CEB)by birth cohort and age-specific average number of CEB,analyzes the postponement and recuperation of fertility,calculates parity progression ratio(PPR)and decomposes the changes in the average number of CEB by a specific age between cohorts.This study mainly focuses on the following questions:(1)Describe the trend in the average number of CEB and age-specific average number of CEB by cohort,including the trend in the average number of CEB for women of different ages at first marriage and first childbirth.(2)Given the impact of delayed childbearing on cohort fertility,analyze the postpone-ment effect of childbearing and the recuperation effect at later reproductive ages in each cohort,including the postponement and recuperation effects by parities,to understand the impact of postponement and recuperation effects of childbearing on the number of CEB.(3)Analyze the impact of changes in the parity progression ratios on the total change in the average number of CEB by a specific age between cohorts to explore which parity has a greater influence on the total change in the average number of CEB.(4)Further analyze the effect of age-parity-specific conditional probability of fertility on the differences in the number of CEB by a specific age between cohorts.(5)Considering the significant impact of educational attainment on women's fertility,a decomposition method was employed to examine the contribution of the change in the number of CEB specific to educational categories and the change in educational structure to the total change in the number of CEB between cohorts.The results show that there is a decreasing trend in the average number of CEB across cohorts.The older the age at first marriage or first birth,the fewer children were ever born.The postponement of the first childbirth deepens among women in later birth cohorts.The decomposition of changes in the average number of CEB shows that the decline in the number of CEB in later birth cohorts is mostly driven by reductions in the progression ratios to first birth.The decline of fertility level among urban or higher educated women is mostly attributable to the reduction in the progres-sion ratios to first birth;While the decline of fertility level among rural or less educated women is attrib-utable to the reduction in the progression ratios to third birth.The decline in the average number of CEB is also affected by changes in age-parity-specific conditional probability,and the contribution of the age-specific conditional probability of first birth becomes larger in later birth cohorts.The education level of women affects cohort fertility,and the contribution of changes in educational structure to the decrease of the average number of CEB increases in later birth cohorts.
万方数据
维普
