Variations in the Patterns of Mortality Underreporting in China and Its Subregions since the Fifth Census
The quality of mortality data in China's national censuses has garnered significant attention,particularly concerning regional disparities in death underreporting,which carry profound implications for public health policies,strategies to address population aging,and economic planning.Despite its impor-tance,longitudinal studies on regional and age-specific underreporting remain scarce,particularly regard-ing shifts in patterns amid the rapid societal transformations between China's Fifth and Seventh Censuses.By utilizing the Log-Quad Model and government-published mortality data from various sources,this study revises census-reported mortality figures across provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions,provid-ing a systematic analysis of the patterns and underlying mechanisms of mortality underreporting in China.The findings reveal a significant upward trend in the national infant mortality underreporting rate,which rose from 7.04%in the Fifth Census to 70.99%in the Sixth and 75.67%in the Seventh.However,despite this increase,the absolute number of underreported infant deaths significantly declined during the Seventh Census,decreasing from 931 per 100,000 in the Sixth Census to 474 per 100,000,highlighting notable improvements in the quality of infant mortality data.In contrast,underreporting issues for adults and the elderly have worsened over time.The adult mortality underreporting rate increased from 5.28%in the Fifth Census to 26.18%in the Seventh Census,with underreported deaths rising from 674 to 2,230 per 100,000.Similarly,the underreporting rate for the younger elderly group(aged 60-79)rose from 6.21%to 22.64%,with corresponding underreported deaths increasing from 348 to 920 per 100,000.For the older elderly group(aged 80-99),the underreporting rate climbed from 1.09%to 4.84%,with underreported deaths rising from 108 to 475 per 100,000.Regional analysis highlights significant disparities in the severity and age-group focus of underreporting.Infant mortality underreporting was notably higher in northern and northeastern China.In contrast,adult mortality underreporting reached its peak in northern,eastern,and northwestern regions.Younger elderly underreporting was most prevalent in southwestern and southern China,whereas older elderly underreporting was particularly pronounced in southern and northeastern regions.Further analysis uncovers distinct mechanisms driving underreporting across age groups.Infant mortality underreporting exhibited a U-shaped relationship with mortality levels,where lower mortality levels correlated with higher underreporting rates,reflecting heightened statistical sensitivity at low mortal-ity levels.Adult underreporting was closely tied to population mobility:the migration participation rate had a negative effect on underreporting,indicating that deaths among outmigrants were registered at their place of origin,reducing underreporting.Conversely,the visibility of the floating population had a positive effect,reflecting increases in underreported deaths at destinations due to delayed or missing registrations caused by return reporting.Elderly underreporting,on the other hand,was more influenced by economic develop-ment levels,demonstrating distinct dynamics compared to infants and adults.This underreporting was likely driven by a complex interplay of socioeconomic conditions,cultural norms,and social support systems.This study provides a comprehensive overview of the evolution of mortality underreporting patterns across China and its regions.It emphasizes the need to evaluate underreporting within the context of rapid societal trans-formations rather than relying solely on static mathematical models.Future research should prioritize addressing the underreporting of adult and elderly deaths while developing more targeted evaluation and intervention strategies.
Census DataDeath UnderreportingDeath Data QualityDeath LevelModel Life Table
万方数据
维普
