光流法雷达外推产品在突发强降水预报中的应用

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国家科技期刊平台
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普

中文摘要：地形条件复杂的山丘区中小河流洪水突发性强、汇流时间短,高准确率和长时效性降水短时临近预报产品对提高突发洪水预报精度尤为关键.以2021 年9 月河南省鸭河口水库出现的千年一遇特大洪水为例,利用国家气象信息中心提供的三源融合格点实况降水资料,检验基于改进光流法的雷达外推降水预报产品在本次洪水过程中0～1h和0～3h降水预报的TS评分和预报偏差.结果表明:① 改进光流法在0～1h的逐小时降水预报上较为精准,累计雨量在 50 mm以下时,TS评分在 0.45～0.85 之间;雨量在 50～70 mm之间时,TS评分在0.35～0.70 之间;雨量在70 mm以上时,TS评分在0.25～0.35 之间.50 mm以上雨量有较高TS评分表现出改进光流法在极端强降水预报中的优势性.② 改进光流法在0～3h的降水预报上,累计雨量在50 mm以下时,TS评分在0.55～0.85 之间;在50 mm以上时,TS评分在0.35～0.75 之间.该降水预报产品不仅对极端性降水预报效果较好,且预报时效长达3h,可为防洪调度提供更长的决策时间.③ 改进光流法在0～3h的降水预报产品与融合实况格点降水相比,雨量在20 mm以下的预报结果比较接近,平均绝对误差在10 mm以内;雨量在 20 mm以上时,随雨量增大,平均误差、平均绝对误差、均方根误差均逐渐增大.④ 改进光流法在0～3h的降水预报产品对影响范围小、降水强度大、维持时间长、累计雨量大的极端强降水有较好的预报表现.研究成果可为洪水预报模型提供一种较为可靠的降水输入预报.

外文标题：Application of optical flow radar extrapolation precipitation products for forecasting sudden heavy rainfall

外文摘要：The floods occurring in small and medium-sized rivers in complex hills are strong suddenness and short confluence time.The precipitation short-term proximity prediction product with high accuracy and long-term timeliness is particularly cru-cial for flood forecasting models.Taking the 1000-year return period catastrophic flood of Yahekou Reservoir in Henan Province in September 2021 as an example,the TS score and forecast deviation of radar extrapolated precipitation prediction products based on the improved optical flow method are examined for the 0～1 h and 0～3 h precipitation forecasts during this flood using the three source fusion grid point real precipitation data provided by the National Meteorological Information Center.The results showed that:① The improved optical flow method is more accurate in 0～1 h hourly precipitation forecast.When the accumulated rainfall is below 50 mm,the TS score ranges from 0.45 to 0.85;when the rainfall is between 50 mm and 70 mm,the TS score is between 0.35 and 0.70,when the rainfall is above 70 mm,the TS score is between 0.25 and 0.35.The high TS score of rainfall above 50 mm shows the superiority of the improved optical flow method in extreme heavy rainfall prediction.②In 0～3 h precipi-tation forecast,when the accumulated rainfall is less than 50 mm,the TS score is 0.55 to 0.85,when it is above 50 mm,the TS score is between 0.35 and 0.75.This precipitation forecast product not only has good prediction effect on extreme precipitation,but also has a prediction time up to 3 hours,providing a longer decision-making time for flood control scheduling.③ Compared with the grid point precipitation of the fusion real situation,the precipitation forecast product of the improved optical flow method in 0～3 h is relatively close to the precipitation below 20 mm,and the average absolute error is within 10 mm.The error gradually increases when the rainfall exceeds 20 mm;with the increase of rainfall,the average error,average absolute error and root mean square error increase gradually.④The improved precipitation prediction products of optical flow method in 0～3 h have good pre-diction performance for extreme heavy precipitation of small influence range,large precipitation intensity,long duration and large accumulated precipitation.The research results can provide a more reliable precipitation input forecast for flood forecasting model.

外文关键词：

extreme heavy rainfallprecipitation forecast productnowcastoptical flow methodradar extrapolation productYa-hekou Reservoir

作者：

魏凡、田刚、徐卫立、李春龙

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作者单位：

武汉中心气象台,湖北武汉 430074

中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉 430205

三峡国家气候观象台,湖北宜昌 443099

中国长江电力股份有限公司智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌 443133

长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉 430010

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关键词：

极端强降水降水预报产品临近预报光流法雷达外推鸭河口水库

基金：

中国气象局创新发展专项中国长江电力股份有限公司项目国家自然科学基金

项目编号：

CXFZ2022J018242102000251709218

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.01.014

人民长江

水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：0.451

ISSN：1001-4179

年,卷(期)：2024.55(1)

参考文献量22