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基于BP神经网络的洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性评估

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为了降低洪涝灾害对北京市承灾体的损害,制定了一个同时考虑暴露度、敏感性和适应能力的承灾体脆弱性评估框架,运用熵权-TOPSIS算法对承灾体指标数据客观赋权并得到标准化后的脆弱性指数,将初始权重和脆弱性指数分别作为输入和输出数据集代入BP神经网络进行训练进而得到优化权重;进一步结合Arc-GIS技术对洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性进行评估,并利用自然断点法将洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性划分为4 个等级.结果表明:①人口密度、经济密度、城市POI密度、植被覆盖率和排水管网等指标对北京市洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性影响显著;②北京市洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性在空间上呈现东南向西北逐渐降低的趋势,城市中心区脆弱性等级高,边缘地区脆弱性低.研究成果对于降低北京市洪涝灾害承灾体脆弱性具有一定指导意义,权重优化模型及脆弱性评估模型也可应用到其他城市.
Assessment on vulnerability of flood disaster bearing body based on BP neural network
To reduce the damage of flood disasters to the bearing body,Beijing City as an example,an assessment framework for vulnerability of flood disaster bearing body considering exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity was developed.The entropy-weighted TOPSIS algorithm was applied to objectively weight the vulnerability indicators of flood disaster bearing body and obtain the standardized vulnerability index.The initial weights and vulnerability indices were used as input and output datasets,respec-tively,for training a BP neural network to obtain optimized weights.Furthermore,the ArcGIS technique was combined to assess the vulnerability of flood disaster bearing body,and the natural break method was used to classify the vulnerability into 4 levels.The results showed that:①Population density,economic density,urban POI density,vegetation coverage and drainage pipe network sig-nificantly influenced the vulnerability of flood disaster bearing body in Beijing City.②The vulnerability of flood disaster bearing body in Beijing city gradually decreased from southeast to northwest in spatial distribution,with higher vulnerability levels in the central urban area and lower vulnerability levels in the peripheral areas.The research results have certain guiding significance for reducing the vulnerability of flood disaster bearing body in Beijing City,and the weight optimization model and vulnerability as-sessment model can also be applied to the other cities.

flood disastersvulnerability of disaster bearing bodyentropy weight methodTOPSISBP neural networkArcGISBeijing City

袁旭山、刘京会、宋珂

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防灾科技学院应急管理学院,河北廊坊 065201

洪涝灾害 承灾体脆弱性 熵权法 TOPSIS BP神经网络 ArcGIS 北京市

国家自然科学基金

72174019

2024

人民长江
水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.451
ISSN:1001-4179
年,卷(期):2024.55(2)
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