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气候变暖背景下汉江流域降水和气温时空变化特征

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为探究气候变暖背景下汉江流域降水和气温的时空发展规律,基于汉江流域及其周边地区29 个气象站点逐日降水(Pre)、最高气温(Tmax)、最低气温(Tmin)和平均气温(Tave)的观测资料,利用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall突变检验和空间插值等方法,分析1960~2019 年汉江流域降水和气温的时空变化特征,以及对变暖停滞现象(Hiatus)的响应.结果表明:① 在全球变暖背景下,汉江流域气候表现出降水不显著减少(p>0.05)、气温显著上升(p<0.05)的暖干化趋势.1960~2019 年汉江流域Pre变化幅度夏季(0.582 mm/a)>秋季(-0.477 mm/a)>春季(-0.403 mm/a)>全年(-0.184 mm/a)>冬季(0.125 mm/a);全年升温幅度呈Tmin(0.028℃/a)>Tmax(0.025℃/a)>Tave(0.022℃/a),四季Tmax、Tmin和Tave一致呈上升趋势,多数升温趋势通过了显著性检验(p<0.05),但升温幅度存在明显差异.② 汉江流域全年和夏季Pre均未发生突变,春、秋季Pre在1970 年代中后期发生突变下降,冬季Pre在1984 年突变增加;除夏季Tmax和Tave外,其余时序气温集中在1990 年代中后期至2000 年代前期发生了突变上升.③汉江流域全年Pre自东南向北递减,四季Pre空间分布规律各异,全年和四季Tmax、Tmin和Tave皆自南向北递减;全年及四季Pre、Tmax、Tmin和Tave变化趋势具有较强的空间异质性.④1998~2012 年汉江流域出现Hiatus现象,尤其以冬季最为明显;停滞后春夏季快速增温,秋冬季依旧呈降温趋势.研究成果对于制定汉江流域防灾减灾、供水保障应对策略具有重要的科学意义.
Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in Hanjiang River Basin under climate warming
To explore the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation and temperature in the Hanjiang River Basin under the back-ground of global climate warming,based on daily precipitation(Pre),maximum temperature(Tmax),minimum temperature(Tmin),and average temperature(Tave)data from 29 meteorological stations in the Hanjiang River Basin and its surrounding areas,spatio-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature from 1960 to 2019,as well as the response of temperature to the warming stagnation phenomenon(Hiatus)were analyzed by using the linear fitting,Mann-Kendall abrupt test,and spatial inter-polation methods,etc.The results showed that:① the climate in the Hanjiang River Basin showed a warming and drying trend,with an insignificant decrease in precipitation(p>0.05)and a significant increase in temperature(p<0.05).The variation range of precipitation from high to low was summer(0.582 mm/a)>autumn(-0.477 mm/a)>spring(-0.403 mm/a)>the whole year(-0.184 mm/a)>winter(0.125 mm/a)during 1960~2019.The annual warming range was Tmin(0.028℃/a)>Tmax(0.025℃/a)>Tave(0.022℃/a).Tmax,Tmin,and Tave all showed a consistent upward trend in four seasons,but there were significant differences in the warming range,and most of the warming trends passed the significance test(p<0.05).②The pre-cipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin did not undergo abrupt changes throughout the year and summer but showed an abrupt de-crease in spring and autumn in the middle to late 1970s and an abrupt increase in the winter of 1984.Except for Tmax and Tave in summer,other temperature time series experienced an abrupt increase from the middle to late 1990s to the early 2000s.③The an-nual precipitation in the Hanjiang River Basin showed a decreasing pattern from southeast to north,with varying spatial distribu-tion patterns throughout the four seasons.The spatial pattern of Tmax,Tmin,and Tave decreased from south to north throughout the year and all seasons and their changing trends exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity.From 1998 to 2012,the Hiatus phenomenon ap-peared in the Hanjiang River Basin,especially in winter;while the temperature rapidly increased in spring and summer after stag-nation,and continued to show a cooling trend in autumn and winter.The research results can provide scientific support for formu-lating disaster prevention and reduction,water supply guarantee,and other response policies in the Hanjiang River Basin.

precipitationtemperatureclimate warmingHiatusabrupt change analysisHanjiang River Basin

安彬、肖薇薇

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安康学院陕西省科协院士专家工作站,陕西 安康 725000

安康市汉江水资源保护与利用工程技术研究中心,陕西安康 725000

降水 气温 气候变暖 Hiatus现象 突变分析 汉江流域

陕西省科技厅项目陕西省教育厅项目安康学院校内专项项目

2021KRM03322JK02332021AYKFKT03

2024

人民长江
水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.451
ISSN:1001-4179
年,卷(期):2024.55(2)
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