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极端工况下梯级水电枢纽群大坝连溃情景分析

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为分析极端工况下梯级水电枢纽群可能出现的最大连溃灾难,提出了两种溃坝工况:一种针对土石坝或受损及病险的重力坝与拱坝,认为大坝漫顶即溃,且全溃;另一种针对正常运行的重力坝和拱坝情形,认为漫顶不溃,采用堰流公式计算下泄水量,并采用洪峰展平公式计算两种工况下溃坝洪水向下游的演进过程.以大渡河流域13 座梯级水电枢纽群为例展开分析.结果表明:下游泸定、大岗山、瀑布沟大坝能够抵挡和削弱一部分上游溃坝洪水,是流域的控制性大坝;工况一(漫顶即溃)发生时的溃坝影响比工况二(漫顶不溃)发生时的影响更为恶劣,水量更大,持续时间更长,产生的峰顶流量更大;漫顶即溃时的下泄流量过程与库容、距离以及起溃水位有关,而漫顶不溃坝时,下泄流量过程与库容、起溃水位、坝型选择密切相关;"上小下大型"梯级电站布局和以重力坝、拱坝为主的坝型选择将有效降低梯级水电枢纽群发生大坝连溃的风险.研究成果可为梯级水电枢纽群大坝连溃风险分析提供理论支撑及技术参考.
Analysis on successive dam failure scenarios of cascade hydropower hubs group under extreme operating conditions
In order to analyze the worst successive collapse disaster that may occur in the cascade hydropower hub group under extreme conditions,this paper proposed two dam-break conditions:the first is for earth-rock dams or damaged and dangerous gravity dams and arch dams,in which dam breaches once overtopping.The second is for normal gravity dams and arch dams,in which the overtopping didn't cause dam breach,and the weir flow formula was suitable for discharge calculation.In both cases,the flood peak flattening formula was used to calculate the routing process of dam-break flood to the downstream.An analysis was carried out for 13 cascade hydropower hub groups in Dadu River Basin.The results show that the downstream Luding,Dagangshan and Pubugou hydropower stations can resist and dissipate part of the upstream dam-break flood,so they are considered as the control dams in the basin.The dam-break impact of condition 1(collapse once overtopping)is worse than that of working condi-tion 2(no collapse in overtopping),with water volume is larger,the duration is shorter,and the peak flow is larger.The discharge process is related to the storage capacity,distance and the water level for condition 1.However for condition 2,the discharge is closely related to the storage capacity,the water level and the dam type.The cascade hydropower stations layout of small reservoir at upper and large reservoir at lower and the selection of dam types mainly gravity dams and arch dams will effectively reduce the risk of dam successive break in cascade hydropower hubs.The research results can provide a theoretical basis for the risk analysis of successive dam failure of cascade hydropower stations.

cascade hydropower complex groupsuccessive dam breakdam-break floodextreme conditionflood routing

周晋军、孔子辰、王昊、刘家宏

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北京工业大学 城市建设学部,北京 100124

中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038

水利部数字孪生流域重点实验室,北京 100038

梯级水电枢纽群 大坝连溃 溃坝洪水 极端工况 洪水演进

国家自然科学基金重大项目北京市教委科技计划一般项目北京市教委科技计划一般项目

52192671KM202310005023KM202210005017

2024

人民长江
水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.451
ISSN:1001-4179
年,卷(期):2024.55(3)
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