岩溶隧洞突涌水灾害风险评价研究
Research on risk assessment of water inrush disaster of karst tunnels
江新 1陈婧 1赵力 1张腾飞 1邱国坤 1李骏骁2
作者信息
- 1. 三峡大学 水利与环境学院,湖北 宜昌 443002
- 2. 长江水利水电开发集团(湖北)有限公司扬子江工程咨询公司,湖北 武汉 430070
- 折叠
摘要
受复杂地质条件的影响,岩溶隧洞在施工过程中极易发生突涌水灾害.为准确评估岩溶隧洞突涌水风险等级,将结构方程模型(SEM)与改进的模糊综合评价法(FCEM)相结合,构建岩溶隧洞突涌水风险评价模型.从地形地貌、气象水文、地层因素、地质构造、岩溶水文地质、施工因素6 个方面深入研究;利用SEM确定各指标标准化路径系数并求得其权重,运用改进FCEM法对岩溶隧洞突涌水风险等级进行评价;以滇中引水工程昆呈隧洞为应用实例,利用Crystal Ball软件验证模型的有效性.结果表明:昆呈隧洞有90%的几率处于52～73 分值区间范围内(Ⅲ级风险),与现场实际情况一致,表明基于SEM-改进FCEM法构建的岩溶隧洞突涌水风险评价模型具有一定的适用性;其中岩溶水文地质、地质构造、气象水文是该隧洞的主要影响因素,施工中应加强对这几方面的监控和量测,避免发生突涌水灾害.研究成果可为类似岩溶隧洞工程提供参考.
Abstract
Affected by complex geological conditions,karst tunnels are prone to suffer sudden water inrush disasters during con-struction.To accurately assess the risk level of water inrush in karst tunnels,the structural equation model(SEM)was combined with the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method(FCEM)to construct a risk assessment model for water inrush in karst tunnels.In-depth research was conducted from 6 aspects:topography,meteorological hydrology,stratigraphic factors,geological structures,karst hydrogeology,and construction factors.SEM was used to determine the standardized path coefficients of each indi-cator and obtain their weights,and the improved FCEM method was used to determine the risk level of water inrush in karst tun-nels.Taking the Kuncheng Tunnel of the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project as an example,the validity of the model was ver-ified by Crystal Ball.The results showed that the Kuncheng Tunnel was within the score range of 52 to73(level Ⅲ risk)with a probability of 90%,which was consistent with the actual situation on site.It showed that the risk assessment model of water inrush in karst tunnels based on the SEM-improved FCEM method had certain applicability.Karst hydrogeology,geological structure,and meteorological hydrology were the main influencing factors of the tunnels.Monitoring and measurement of these aspects should be strengthened during construction to avoid water inrush disasters.The research results can provide a reference for similar karst tunnel projects.
关键词
岩溶隧洞/突涌水/结构方程模型(SEM)/改进模糊综合评价法(FCEM)/蒙特卡洛模拟/昆呈隧洞/滇中引水工程Key words
karst tunnel/water inrush/structural equation model(SEM)/improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method(FCEM)/Monte Carlo simulation/Kuncheng Tunnel/Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据