首页|变化环境下赣江流域水文情势演变及归因分析

变化环境下赣江流域水文情势演变及归因分析

扫码查看
原文链接
  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
为揭示赣江流域水文情势演变特征及其主要驱动因素,根据赣江外洲站1953～2020 年实测流量和水位资料,采用滑动平均法、Kendall秩次相关检验、Spearman秩次相关检验、累积距平检验、Mann-Kendall检验、滑动秩和检验、Pettitt检验和有序聚类检验法分析该站流量和水位的变化特征,采用随机森林模型和残差分析法定量评估人类活动和气候变化对流量及水位变化的影响.结果表明:① 外洲站年尺度和月尺度平均流量均呈现不显著的增大趋势,年平均流量增幅为10.5%,增大速率为3.2(m3·s-1)/a;年尺度和月尺度平均水位均呈现显著的下降趋势,年平均水位降幅为-14.3%,下降速率为-0.04 m/a.②1991 年为外洲站年平均流量序列的突变年份,影响期较基准期增大了205 m3/s;定量分析气候变化和人类活动对流量变化的贡献率,其中气候变化占92.8%,赣江流域降水增多是使外洲站流量略有增大的主要原因.③ 2002 年为外洲站年平均水位序列的突变年份,影响期较基准期下降了2.20 m,人类活动对水位变化的贡献率占 93.8%;水利工程建设、流域综合治理等人类活动的影响,改变了河流天然的水沙规律,外洲站断面受冲淤变化和人工采砂等影响,河床逐年下切趋势明显,这是造成外洲站水位显著下降的主要原因.研究成果可为变化环境下流域水资源利用提供参考.
Analysis of hydrologic regime evolution and attribution in Ganjiang River Basin under changing environment
In order to reveal the characteristics and the main driving factors of hydrologic regime evolution in the Ganjiang River Basin,based on the measured discharge and water level data from 1953 to 2020 at the Waizhou Station of the Ganjiang River Ba-sin,moving average method,Kendall rank correlation test,Spearman rank correlation test,cumulative departure test,Mann-Ken-dall test,moving rank sum test,Pettitt test and ordered cluster test were used to analyze the variation characteristics of discharge and water level at the station. Random forest model and residual analysis method were used to quantitatively evaluate the effects of human activities and climate change on the changes of discharge and water level. The results showed that:① the annual and monthly average discharge showed an insignificant increasing trend,the annual average discharge increased by 10. 5％ with a rate of 3.2 (m3·s-1)/a;the annual and monthly average water level showed a significant decreasing trend,the annual average water level decreased by14.3％ with a rate of-0.04 m/a;②1991 was the abrupt change year for the annual average discharge series at the Waizhou Station,and the discharge increased by 205 m3/s in impact period compared to that in the baseline period. The contribution of climate change and human activities to the discharge change was quantitatively analyzed,climate change accounting for 92.8％,and the increase of precipitation in the Ganjiang River Basin was the main reason for the slight increase in discharge at the Waizhou Station.③2002 was the abrupt change year for the annual average water level series at the Waizhou Station,and the water level decreased by 2. 20 m in the impact period compared to that in baseline period,and the contribution of human activ-ities to the water level change accounted for 93. 8％. Due to the impacts of water conservancy projects construction,comprehensive basin treatment and other human activities,the natural flow and sand rules of the river has been changed. The cross section of the Waizhou Station was affected by scouring and siltation changes and artificial sand mining,leading to a significant riverbed scouring from year to year. What mentioned above were the main reasons for the significant decrease of the water level at the Waizhou Sta-tion. The research results can provide a reference for water resources utilization in the basin under changing environment.

hydrologic regime evolutioninconsistency analysisrandom forestresidual analysisclimate changehuman ac-tivitiesGanjiang River Basin

乔时雨、李国芳、李国文、陈静、冻芳芳

展开 >

河海大学 水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098

江西省水文监测中心,江西 南昌 330002

中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,陕西 西安 710065

水文情势演变 非一致性分析 随机森林 残差分析 气候变化 人类活动 赣江流域

江西省重点研发计划国家重点研发计划浙江省自然科学基金河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室"一带一路"水与可持续发展科技基金

20212BBG710142018YFC1508001LZJWY22D0100022022490911

2024

10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.05.013

人民长江
水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.451
ISSN：1001-4179
年,卷(期)：2024.55(5)
  • 23