River blockage prediction of rainfall-induced debris flow based on nonlinear regression
River blockage resulting from debris flow disasters is common in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area,posing significant cascading effects that imperil the safety of life and property in the region.Therefore,accurately predicting the extent of river blockage induced by debris flows and implementing corresponding preventive measures are imperative.This study focused on the group debris flows that occurred in Qingping Town,Mianzhu City,Sichuan Province,on August 13,2010.Through the analysis of factor weights,we developed a prediction model for assessing the extent of river blockage induced by debris flows utilizing non-linear regression technique and we compared its performances with existing models.Upon demonstrating the efficacy of the new model,the extent of river blockage under different rainfall frequencies was predicated.The findings revealed that the flow ratio and catchment area were optimal predictive factors,and the absolute mean error of the established model was 0.049.Compared with other models,it was found that the established model had good applicability in predicating debris flow blockage in Qingping Town.Additionally,the predicted extent of river blockage reached 1 in some gullies under extreme rainfall conditions,it would definitely block the Mianyuan River.These findings can provide valuable insights for the prevention and mitigation of debris flow disasters in the region.
rainfall-induced debris flowriver blockagenonlinear regressionprediction modelWenchuan earthquake area
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