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水电煤电协同发展促进电力系统低碳转型方案评价

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为协同开发水电(抽蓄),积极谋划煤电退役规模与时序、整合风光资源,保证系统稳定低碳过渡,以及探究电力系统转型(主要考虑水电发展与煤电发展)中多指标、多层次的综合效益问题,以新疆维吾尔自治区电力系统转型方案为例,构建了详细考虑水库运行条件与机组运行特性的电力系统机组组合模型,依据地区发展规划制定基础退役、水电改造、煤电改造、增加抽蓄以及加速退役5 种转型场景,结合层次分析法-熵权法建立了经济、环境、技术与社会4 个维度的综合评价指标体系.结果表明:① 在协同煤电转型下增加抽水蓄能可有效降低电力系统弃风弃光量与系统失负荷概率;② 增加抽蓄并合理规划退役煤电未增加电力系统年度成本,且可以减少系统碳排放;③ 加速退役场景的综合评价得分最高,为71.53.研究成果可为新型电力系统构建与水电(抽蓄)开发、煤电退役以及整合风光资源提供理论支撑.
Evaluation on low-carbon transformation scheme in power system promoted by coordinated development of hydropower and coal-fired power
In order to coordinate the development of hydropower(pumped storage),actively plan the scale and timing of coal-fired power decommissioning,incorporate wind and solar resources,ensure the stable and low-carbon transition of the system,and explore the multi-index and multi-level comprehensive benefits in power system transformation(mainly considering hydropower development and coal-fired power development),taking the power system transformation plan of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Re-gion as an example,a power system unit commitment model was constructed by considering reservoir operation conditions and unit operation characteristics.Five transformation scenarios of basic decommissioning,hydropower transformation,coal-fired power transformation,increasing pumped storage and accelerating decommissioning were formulated by the regional development plan.The comprehensive evaluation index system of four dimensions of economy,environment,technology and society was established by combining the analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight method.The results showed that:① increasing pumped storage under the coordinated coal-electricity transformation could effectively reduce the abandoned amount of wind and solar electricity gener-ating and the load loss probability in the power system;②increasing pumped storage and rational planning of withdrawing coal-fired power wouldn't increase the annual cost of the power system,and could reduce the carbon emissions of the system;③ the comprehensive evaluation score of the accelerated decommissioning scenario was the highest,which was 71.53.The research re-sults can provide theoretical support for the construction of new power system,the development of hydropower(pumped storage),the decommissioning of coal power and the integration of wind and solar resources.

new power systempumped storagecoal-fired power decommissioningcomprehensive evaluationXinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

刘泳、陈帝伊、张猛、王航、赵子文、田刘杨

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西北农林科技大学 水利与建筑工程学院,陕西 杨凌 712100

新型电力系统 抽水蓄能 煤电退役 综合评价 新疆

国家自然科学基金重点项目

52339006

2024

人民长江
水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.451
ISSN:1001-4179
年,卷(期):2024.55(5)
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