CMIP6模式碳中和时期长江流域降水变化及成因分析
Precipitation changes over Changjiang River Basin under carbon neutrality period in CMIP6 models and its possible cause
张乐英 1邢雯慧 2侯书秀 1齐道日娜3
作者信息
- 1. 南京林业大学 江苏省南方现代林业协同创新中心,江苏 南京 210037
- 2. 长江水利委员会 水文局,湖北武汉 430010
- 3. 中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081
- 折叠
摘要
为揭示碳中和时期长江流域降水特征,利用CMIP6 模式确定了碳中和时间并对比基准期研究了碳中和时期长江流域平均降水和极端降水变化,最后从大气环流的角度分析了其可能原因.结果表明:① SSP-2.6情景达到碳中和时间为2062 年,与中国碳中和政策时间基本一致.② 通过空间降尺度和偏差订正后,CMIP6模式可以很好地模拟基准期长江流域年平均降水.③ 与基准期相比,碳中和时期长江流域平均降水整体偏多,降水增幅北部>南侧,上游>下游和中游,春季>夏季>秋季>冬季,其中岷沱江和嘉陵江关键区是降水变化大值区,需重点防控.长江流域中游持续干旱日数偏少,北部极端大雨日数显著增多2.4～4.0 d,上游和下游极端大雨强度显著偏强.④ 环流分析发现,冬、春和秋季渤海异常反气旋南侧的东风异常和西北侧的东南风异常从中西太平洋带来的暖湿气流,以及夏季西南风异常从孟加拉湾带来的暖湿气流,使得长江流域降水增多.研究成果可为长江流域相关部门制定未来碳中和时期气候变化应对策略提供依据.
Abstract
To reveal the precipitation anomaly over the Changjiang River Basin under carbon neutrality period,we defined the carbon neutrality period in CMIP6 models,analyzed the average and extreme precipitation differences between the carbon neutrali-ty period and the reference period for climate change amplitude,and gave its possible causes from the atmospheric circulation a-nomalies.The results showed that:① The carbon neutrality year is 2062 under the SSP-2.6 scenario,which is consistent with the carbon neutrality policy of China.② After the spatial downscaling and bias revision,the CMIP6 models can well simulate the precipitation in the Changjiang River Basin.③ During the carbon neutrality period,the average precipitation over the Changjiang River Basin increases significantly with larger anomalies in the north(upper reaches)than in the south(lower and middle rea-ches),and the order in seasons is spring>summer>autumn>winter.Especially,the anomalies over the Minjing River,Tuojiang River,and Jialing River are the maximum center in all seasons,which need special attention in the future.Continuous drought days decrease over the middle reaches of Changjiang River Basin,extreme heavy rain days significantly increase by 2.4～4.0 days over the north,and extreme heavy rain intensity enhances over the upper and lower reaches.④ The easterly and southeasterly anoma-lies over south and northwest of the Bohai Sea anticyclone in winter,spring,and autumn bring warm and moist flow from the cen-tral and western Pacific to the Changjiang River Basin,which favors the precipitation during the carbon neutrality.Meanwhile,the southwesterly anomaly,conveying warm and moist flow from the Bay of Bengal,contributes to the positive precipitation anomaly in summer.These results can provide a basis for relevant departments in the Changjiang River Basin to develop climate change re-sponse strategies for the future carbon neutrality period.
关键词
降水变化/碳中和/CMIP6/SSP-2.6/长江流域Key words
precipitation variation/carbon neutrality/CMIP6/SSP-2.6/Changjiang River Basin引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(Z432302004)
南京林业大学人才启动项目(GXL2018040)
国家自然科学基金青年基金(42005033)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据