新疆水资源经济生态系统韧性协调分析及未来预测
Coordination analysis on water resources-economy-ecological resilience in Xinjiang region and future prediction
孙宇 1孟珊珊 1刘维忠1
作者信息
- 1. 新疆农业大学 经济管理学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
- 折叠
摘要
为了提高新疆干旱区水资源-经济-生态系统韧性水平,实现三者协调发展,以新疆干旱区 14 个地州为例,采用熵权法确定指标权重,运用耦合协调模型测算水资源-经济-生态系统韧性耦合度和协调度,并应用R/S分析法预测新疆未来协调度发展趋势.研究结果表明:①2010～2020 年新疆水资源-经济-生态系统韧性综合发展水平整体呈上升趋势,系统对风险冲击的抵御力、恢复力和适应力有所增强.② 各地州耦合度呈良好耦合状态,协调水平整体由勉强协调向中级失调转变.③ 由Hurst指数可知,博尔塔拉蒙古自治州等9 个地区水资源-经济-生态韧性协调度呈现改善趋势,昌吉回族自治州等5 个地区协调度呈恶化趋势.新疆在未来发展应注重水资源和生态环境的保护,提高水资源、经济、生态系统韧性协调程度,实现社会可持续发展.
Abstract
To improve the level of water resources-economy-ecological resilience in the arid region of Xinjiang and achieve the coordinated development of the three,taking 14 prefectures in the arid zone of Xinjiang as examples,the entropy weight meth-od was used to determine the weights of indicators,and the coupling coordination model was applied to measure the water re-sources-economy-ecological resilience coupling degree and coordination degree.The R/S analysis was applied to predict the development trend of the future coordination degree in Xinjiang.The results showed that:①From 2010 to 2020,the overall devel-opment level of the water resources-economy-ecological resilience in Xinjiang showed an upward trend,and the system's resist-ance,resilience and adaptability to risk were enhanced.②The coupling degree of each region and prefectures was in a good state,and the overall coordination level has changed from barely coordinated to intermediate out of balance.③From the Hurst index,9 regions including Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture,showed an improving trend in water resources-economy-ecological re-silience coordination,and 5 regions including Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture,showed a deteriorating trend in coordination.Xinjiang should pay attention to the protection of water resources and ecological environment in the future development,improve the coordination degree of water resources-economy-ecological resilience,and realize the sustainable development of the socie-ty.
关键词
水资源-经济-生态韧性/耦合协调模型/R/S分析法/新疆Key words
water resources-economy-ecological resilience/coupling coordination model/R/S analysis method/Xinjiang region引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据