基于时空变源分布式模型的流域洪水复盘分析方法——以海河流域北三河系"23·7"较大洪水为例

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国家科技期刊平台
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中文摘要：海河流域北三河系覆盖北京、天津、河北三省(直辖市),其防洪安全事关当地社会经济发展.为有效应对气候变化影响下极端暴雨频发所带来的洪水防御新挑战,提出了一种时空双维度流域性洪水复盘新思路,以"23∙7"北三河系较大洪水为例,通过构建时空变源分布式水文模型结合暴雨时空统计分析对全河系洪水的发生、发展过程进行了模拟.模拟结果的确定性系数均大于 0.7,洪峰相对误差均小于 5%,所建模型可以较好地表征此次洪水的产流机制变化.分析发现,此次洪水过程中北运河流域产流以蓄满产流机制为主,潮白河流域产流则蓄满及混合产流两种机制均有体现,特别是靠近降雨集中区的山区平原过渡地带表现出明显的混合产流机制.建议在未来进一步完善流域防洪体系,重点提升该区域的水雨情监测能力.所提出的时空双维度下的流域性洪水复盘分析方法可为今后其他流域级洪水模拟复盘提供技术参考.

外文标题：Aretrospective approach of regional floods based on distributed spatiotemporal-mixed runoff model:case of"23·7"large flood in Beisan River of Haihe River Basin

外文摘要：The flood control of Beisan River basin,a sub-basin in Haihe River Basin,which covers three administrative areas of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,strongly affects social and economic development of North China.In order to effectively address the new challenges of flood prevention against extreme rainstorms under the climate change impacts,a new retrospective approach of flood is proposed in this paper.Taking the"23∙7"large flood of the Beisan River basin as an example,we simulate and analyze the flood process with the distributed spatiotemporally-mixed runoff model and combined with spatiotemporal statistical analysis.The results shows that the Nash coefficients of the simulated result is over 0.7,and the relative errors of the flood peaks are lower than 5%,which demonstrates that the proposed approach possesses higher applicability in flood simulation and has good perform-ance in describing runoff generation mechanism.The Beiyun River basin is dominated by saturation excess runoff mechanism.And the Chaobai River basin shows both saturation excess runoff mechanism and mixed runoff mechanism,especially at the place of the mountainous-plain transition area near the rainfall concentration area,it shows obvious mixed runoff mechanism.It is suggested that the flood prevention system of the basin should be improved in the future,focusing on improvement of rainwater monitoring ca-pacity.The retrospective analysis approach presented in this paper can provide a technical reference for other regional flood simu-lation in China.

外文关键词：

retrospective analysis on flooddistributed hydrological modelfloods temporal and spatial statistical analysis"23·7"catastrophic floodBeisan River BasinHaihe River Basin

作者：

马强、史朝旭、赵悦、杨邦、张晓祥、刘昌军

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作者单位：

中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038

河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京 210098

水利部海河水利委员会水文局,天津 300181

河海大学地理与遥感学院,江苏南京 211100

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关键词：

洪水复盘分布式水文模型暴雨时空统计分析 "23·7"特大洪水北三河流域海河流域

基金：

国家重点研发计划项目水利部重大科技项目

项目编号：

2023YFC3006702SKR-2022034

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.07.001

人民长江

水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：0.451

ISSN：1001-4179

年,卷(期)：2024.55(7)

参考文献量18