Identification of drought status in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau based on SPEI-RRV and Markov Chain
The continual global warming trend has contributed to the uncertainty of regional dry and wet change characteristics.In this study,a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau was calculated,and combined with reliability-resilience-vulnerability(RRV)and Markov Chains(MC),the drought risk level,drought frequency,area proportion and average duration of the region were calculated.Then Mann-Kendall test was employed to test their signifi-cance,identify drought events and characterize the spatial characteristics of drought states quantitatively in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau during the period from 2000 to 2022.The results showed that SPEI-RRV was reliable in identifying drought events and evaluating regional drought states accurately in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.78%of the regions have a weak increasing trend of drought year by year.The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau has more than 35%probability of suffering different degrees of drought from light to extra severe,especially the steady state probability of extra severe drought in the eastern hilly region is25%,and the prob-ability of extreme drought is very high.The research findings can provide references for drought monitoring and drought risk as-sessment in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau.
drought status identificationSPEI-RRVMarkov ChainsYunnan-Guizhou Plateau
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