Future projection on temperature and precipitation in Changjiang River Basin based on N-CMIP6
To explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of future temperature and precipitation changes in the Changjiang River Basin with higher reliability,based on the grid meteorological observation data of China from 1961 to 2020,we use 35 cli-mate models from the latest high-resolution downscaled dataset(N-CMIP6)released by NASA in 2022 to evaluate the temper-ature and precipitation simulation capability over the Changjiang River Basin.Future projections are made for temperature and precipitation changes over the Changjiang River Basin under three shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5)in the 21st century,the near term(2021～2040),mid-term(2041～2060),and late-term(2081～2100).The results show that in the 21st century,the average temperature and precipitation in the Changjiang River Basin will show a significant upward trend,especially in the upper reaches.By the end of the 21st century(2081～2100),compared with the baseline period(1995～2014),the average temperature in the Changjiang River Basin is projected to rise by 1.61～5.18℃,with average precipitation increasing by 7.6%～12.8%.The temperature increase in autumn is the most signifi-cant,followed by summer,and the precipitation increase in winter is the largest,followed by autumn.This study can deepen the scientific understanding of the regional climate change in the Changjiang River Basin and provide a basis for decision-making to respond to climate change and promote sustainable development.
temperatureprecipitationN-CMIP6SSPsChangjiang River Basin
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
