气候变化下澜沧江流域径流及水电站发电能力预测
Prediction on runoff and hydropower generation capacity of Lancang River Basin under climate changes
刘文琨 1罗增良 2周鹏程 3韩兵 3嵇泽军 3翟家齐4
作者信息
- 1. 中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司,云南昆明 650051;中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038
- 2. 中国地质大学(武汉) 地理与信息工程学院,湖北 武汉 430074
- 3. 中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司,云南昆明 650051
- 4. 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038
- 折叠
摘要
气候变化会对流域径流和梯级电站发电能力产生重要影响.基于历史和未来气候情景数据,综合利用WACM水文模型和梯级水电站发电模型,对澜沧江下游5 个梯级水电站的出入库流量变化和发电能力进行预测.结果表明:①澜沧江流域未来气温会有一定程度上升,但GFDL-CM3、GISS-E2-R-CC和IPSL-CM5A-MR 3 种气候模式下的降水变化趋势不一致,分别为增加 8%～24%、减少 15%～45%和变幅较小(-4%～7%);②上游来水在GFDL-CM3 模式下明显增加(16.15%),在GISS-E2-R-CC模式下大幅减少(-30.67%),而在IPSL-CM5A-MR模式下变化不大(-2.01%);③梯级水电站年均发电量受上游来水的影响显著,保证出力对来水减少更为敏感,当年均流量下降30.67%时,保证出力下降约80%.研究成果可为澜沧江流域应对气候变化影响的水资源和梯级电站调度管理提供参考.
Abstract
Climate change significantly affects runoff in river basins and the power generation capacity of cascade hydropower stations.Using historical and future climate scenario data,the WACM hydrological model,and a cascade hydropower generation model,we predicted the changes in inflow and outflow as well as the power generation capacity of five cascade hydropower stations in the lower reaches of Lancang River.The results indicates that:①The future temperature in the Lancang River Basin will rise to some extent,but precipitation trends vary among the climate models GFDL-CM3,GISS-E2-R-CC,and IPSL-CM5A-MR,showing increases of 8%～24%,decreases of 15%～45%,and minor variability(-4%～7%),respectively.② Upstream in-flow is projected to increase significantly(16.15%)under the GFDL-CM3 model,decrease substantially(-30.67%)under the GISS-E2-R-CC model,and change minimally(-2.01%)under the IPSL-CM5A-MR model.③The annual average power generation of the cascade hydropower stations is significantly influenced by upstream inflow,and guaranteed output is more sensitive to reductions in inflow.When the annual average flow decreases by 30.67%,the guaranteed output decreases by approxi-mately 80%.These findings can provide references for water resource management and cascade hydropower station scheduling in the Lancang River Basin in response to climate variation.
关键词
气候变化/梯级水电站/发电能力/水文模型/澜沧江流域Key words
climate change/cascade hydropower stations/power generation capacity/hydrological model/Lancang River Ba-sin引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42201038)
云南省科技厅重点研发计划项目(202203AA080010)
中国电力建设股份有限公司核心攻关技术项目(DJ-HXGG-2021-04)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据