Drought and its accurate prediction have always been a major problem in the field of hydrometeorology.To explore accurate and feasible drought forecasting methods,a land-air coupled drought forecasting model based on the VIC model and the European Center for Medium-Range Numerical Weather Forecasting(ECMWF)forecasting meteorological data was established to calculate monitored soil water content and predicted soil water content and to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution char-acteristics of the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index(SMAPI),based on which we assessed the drought forecasting ability of the coupled model over Zhejiang Province.The results show that:① for the foresight period,the forecasted and monitored SMAPI values in the foresight period of 0～1l d perform better in terms of absolute error,RMSE,and R-value,which shows the model has the best forecasting effect in the 10-day scale;②The 10-days scale forecast of the model can accurately grasp the develop-ment trend of the future droughts in the process of temporal change,and the consistency of the spatial forecast with the grid distri-bution of the monitored SMAPI values can reach 90%or more;③ The model has better prediction performance in the plain area with little rainfall in the northwest of Zhejiang Province,and better describes the trend of drought prediction in the area with more drastic changes in soil water content.The research results can provide scientific and technological support for drought disaster pre-vention and early warning in Zhejiang Province.
关键词
干旱预测/土壤含水量/陆气耦合模型/VIC模型/浙江省
Key words
drought prediction/soil moisture/land-air coupled model/VIC model/Zhejiang Province
维普
万方数据