人民长江2024,Vol.55Issue(10) :15-23.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.10.003

长江1870年特大洪水防御推演与对策研究

Study on flood control deduction and countermeasures in case of catastrophic flood in 1870 in Changjiang River Basin

徐兴亚 徐照明 要威 李安强 徐学军 任玉峰
人民长江2024,Vol.55Issue(10) :15-23.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.10.003

长江1870年特大洪水防御推演与对策研究

Study on flood control deduction and countermeasures in case of catastrophic flood in 1870 in Changjiang River Basin

徐兴亚 1徐照明 2要威 3李安强 3徐学军 3任玉峰4
扫码查看

作者信息

  • 1. 中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北 武汉 430010;长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北 武汉 430010;流域水安全保障湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉 430010
  • 2. 水利部长江水利委员会,湖北 武汉 430010
  • 3. 长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北 武汉 430010;流域水安全保障湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉 430010
  • 4. 中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北 武汉 430010
  • 折叠

摘要

1870 年长江流域发生了特大洪水,枝城站洪峰流量重现期超1 000a一遇,造成极为严重的洪灾损失.为强化特大洪水风险防范,有效提升极端洪水灾害的应对能力,在分析1870 年特大洪水雨水灾情特征、流域水文地理演变和防洪体系建设情况的基础上,对1870 年特大洪水在现状防洪体系调度运用条件下的发生、发展、演进过程进行了推演模拟.结果表明:当前再遇1870 年特大洪水,长江流域防洪体系可妥善应对并大幅减少洪灾损失,按调度规程发挥以三峡水库为主的水库群洪水拦蓄作用,并运用荆江分洪区等13 处蓄滞洪区分洪、200 多处洲滩民垸行洪后,长江防洪重点区域防洪安全总体可控,但洪水防御仍面临堤防长时间高水位运行存在安全隐患、蓄滞洪区与洲滩民垸行蓄洪运用困难、大量人员转移安置压力大等突出问题.根据1870年洪水推演成果,结合近年来长江流域防汛实践,从加强特大洪水风险机理研究、加快流域防洪工程体系建设、强化风险研判和优化调度、做好应急转移和救灾安置等方面提出了提升特大洪水防御能力的对策建议.

Abstract

The 1870 flood in the Changjiang River Basin is an extraordinary and catastrophic event in the history,with peak flow returning period of over 1000 years at Zhicheng Station,causing extremely serious flood losses.In order to strengthen the ability to prevent catastrophic flood risk and effectively improve the ability to cope with extreme flood disasters,based on analyzing the char-acteristics of the catastrophic flood in 1870,the hydrological and geographical evolution of the Changjiang River Basin,and the construction of the flood control system,a retrospective simulation was conducted to deduce the occurrence,development,and evo-lution process of the catastrophic flood under the current flood control system.The results show that the current flood control sys-tem has ability to defend against the catastrophic flood in 1870 and can greatly reduce the flood losses.After dispatching the Three Gorges Reservoir and other reservoirs according to regulations,and applying 13 flood detention areas such as the Jingjiang flood diversion area and more than 200 polders,the flood control safety of the key areas in the Changjiang River Basin can be generally controllable.However,it still faces problems such as safety hazards of embankments,difficulties in the use of flood storage and de-tention areas,and high pressure on personnel relocation and resettlement.According to the results of retrospective flood simulation and the practice of flood control in recent years,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the ability of miti-gating catastrophic flood,including strengthening researches on mechanism of catastrophic floods,accelerating the construction of flood control engineering systems,enhancing risk assessment and optimizing scheduling,and improving emergency transfer and disaster relief resettlement.

关键词

1870年洪水/防洪减灾/联合调度/蓄滞洪区/长江流域

Key words

catastrophic flood in 1870/flood control and disaster reduction/joint dispatching/flood storage and detention are-as/Changjiang River Basin

引用本文复制引用

基金项目

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002702)

中国长江电力股份有限公司项目(242102024)

长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司自主创新项目(CX2021Z03)

出版年

2024
人民长江
水利部长江水利委员会

人民长江

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.451
ISSN:1001-4179
参考文献量17
段落导航相关论文