Joint forecast for short-term power of hydro-wind-photovoltaic system
Short-term power forecast is an important way to guide operation of renewable energy stations.A joint short-term power forecast model for hydro-wind-photovoltaic system is proposed for problem of hardly considering the spatial-temporal correlation of different energies and the complementary characteristics of forecast errors in power forecast of hybrid energy system.The WRF-Xin'anjiang coupling model is used to drive joint meteorological and hydrological elements forecast.The joint forecast factors are identified by the mutual information method.The joint power forecast schemes are constructed based on long short-term memory network.The complementary rate of forecast errors is proposed to evaluate the power forecast accuracy.Guandi hydro-wind-photovoltaic complementary system in Yalong River basin is considered as a case study.Results indicate that compared to independent forecast model,the joint forecast model driven by physics and data reduced the average absolute error and root mean square error of total power forecast by 9.62%and 8.31%,respectively.The total system power forecast error is lower than the summation of forecast errors for each power station due to the complementary characteristics of forecast errors.Compared with the independent forecast model,the complementary rate of forecast errors increases by 10.96%.The proposed method can provide technical support for the coordination of hydro-wind-photovoltaic system.
hydro-wind-photovoltaic systempower forecastjoint forecastcomplementary of forecast errorsGuandi Hy-dropower StationYalong River Basin
万方数据
维普
